The ECB estimated that Eurozone banks would face a capital shortfall of €25 billion in a severe crisis. Earlier work by the authors estimated the shortfall to be 30 times higher. This column argues that this striking divergence can be explained by the ECB’s reliance on static risk-weights.
One frequently used argument in favour of secession is that there are economic benefits from independence. However, whether or not this is the case remains largely unexplored. This column addresses this question by examining the economic implications of secession in the case of the former Yugoslavia. The authors find that independence had no favourable economic impact. The way secession was achieved, however, mattered. Whereas secession without real conflict did not leave any noticeable economic impact, violent secession has, by contrast, led to a significant destruction of wealth.
The conventional thinking about foreign direct investment is that it may create jobs but also take away market opportunities from domestic firms. This column suggests another spillover to consider. If foreign firms require higher quality inputs, domestic firms who share suppliers with foreign firms gain access to better local inputs. It then argues that this spillover effect can explain a third of the productivity gains within Bangladeshi firms during 1999-2003.
Would the economic benefits of devolving full income tax powers to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly outweigh the costs? Not according to an overwhelming majority of respondents to the monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), summarised in this column. A smaller majority of CFM experts do not accept the economic case for establishing 'English votes for English laws' with the same tax and spending powers as the Scottish Parliament.
A common view in international finance is that currency trades make money because high-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate. This column argues that this view is flawed, suggesting that currency risk premia may be much simpler than previously thought. The carry trade has little to do with the appreciation of the currency, but instead exploits persistent differentials in interest rates across countries. It is thus important to understand why some currencies have persistently higher interest rates than others.
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