Peter Gal, Alexander Hijzen, 27 September 2016

Product market reforms are seen as a way to boost output in advanced economies, but we know little about their short-term impact. This column presents data from 18 advanced economies that reveal large differences in the potential upside of reform depending on the sector in which a firm operates, its size, and its financial health.

Michael Spence, Danny Leipziger, James Manyika, Ravi Kanbur, 04 November 2015

The global economy is not working properly. This column argues that to overcome suboptimal results, global aggregate demand must be expanded, the gap between excessively large pools of capital and huge unmet infrastructure needs must be bridged, and finally, the distributional downside of rapid technological advances and global integration must be addressed. Change will come only when a global vision is put forth, coupled with political will.

Stefano Neri, Stefano Siviero, 15 August 2015

EZ inflation has been falling steadily since early 2013, turning negative in late 2014. This column surveys a host of recent research from Banca d’Italia that examined the drivers of this fall, its macroeconomic effects, and ECB responses. Aggregate demand and oil prices played key roles in the drop, which has consistently ‘surprised’ market-based expectations. Towards the end of 2014 the risk of the ECB de-anchoring inflation expectations from the definition of price stability became material.

George-Marios Angeletos, Fabrice Collard, Harris Dellas, 16 March 2015

The Global Crisis has forced a revaluation of the standard macroeconomic models in use worldwide. This column discusses an enrichment that include a formal concept of ‘confidence’ about the short-medium term economic outlook – one that relates to market psychology rather than expectations about technology and policy. This extension helps the model predictions better match reality. It also offers a formalisation of the popular view that depressed spending, arising from a drop in confidence, is a major cause of recessions and that recoveries often hinge on ‘restoring confidence in the economy’.  

Francesco Giavazzi, Guido Tabellini, 21 August 2014

The stagnating Eurozone economy requires policy action. This column argues that EZ leaders should agree a coordinated 5% tax cut, extension of budget deficit targets by 3 or 4 years, and issuance of long-term public debt to be purchased by the ECB without sterilisation.

Douglas Campbell, 15 April 2014

The secular stagnation hypothesis is back. Several prominent economists claim that the US may have entered a prolonged period of anaemic economic growth caused by weak aggregate demand. This column argues that the build-up of trade deficits caused by the appreciation of the dollar can explain most of the decline in manufacturing employment, output and investment in the US. Aggressive monetary policy targeted at increasing inflation could help by effectively taxing the inflow of foreign reserves, thereby leading to a depreciation of the dollar.