The dramatic and largely unexpected collapse in oil prices has sparked intense debate over the causes and consequences. This column argues that a broader energy perspective is now needed to comprehend oil’s long-term outlook, and provides answers to several questions about the oil market in the global economy.
Rabah Arezki, 18 August 2016
Lutz Kilian, 25 February 2015
Between June and December 2014, the Brent price of crude oil fell by 44%, resulting in one of the most dramatic declines in the price of oil in recent history. This column presents a new quantitative analysis of the market for crude oil. According to the model the authors use, around half of the decline ($27) was predictable using publicly available information. A part of this decline was due to a slowdown in global economic activity, but the major part came from supply and demand shocks in the oil market. Nevertheless, there are reasons to expect the decline in oil prices to end soon.
Livia Chiţu, Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, 17 March 2014
The dollar remains dominant in the global monetary system. The clearest sign for its prevailing status is the dollar’s role as an exclusive currency used in the global oil market. This column suggests that there is room for more than one international currency even in a market as homogenous as the oil one. This is consistent with the view that network increasing returns are not as strong as sometimes supposed, first-mover advantage is not everything, and incumbency is no guarantee for continued dominance.