Debate surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is raging. Economists on different sides of the debate have used different arguments and tools to support their positions. This column surveys several recent studies and the strategies they employ in modelling the potential effects of TPP. It argues that structural models need to start from micro foundations, and need to incorporate trade and macro dynamics. The general results of these studies lend support to those who think that TPP will be beneficial.
Fabio Ghironi, 03 July 2016
Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, 30 April 2016
The Trans-Pacific Partnership faces a serious political challenge in the US, with some viewing it as primarily benefitting the wealthy. This column argues that it will slightly favour middle- and low-income US households, while also generating substantial benefits for poorer developing countries. As with any trade agreement, the gains and losses will be asymmetrically distributed, but the gains should permit ample support for individuals adversely affected.
Shujiro Urata, 16 February 2016
A series of mega-regional free trade agreements are currently being negotiated. This column argues that Japan is in a unique position to be able to negotiate with due regard for consistency among these agreements. It should thus seek to bring negotiations to a successful end and to expand and integrate the mega-regional FTAs. This will help rebuild the world trade regime so as to pave the way for achieving economic growth for the entire world.
Tsuyoshi Kawase, 10 January 2016
An agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership has finally been reached, after many twists and turns. This column examines the new set of rules comprising the agreement, and asks whether the TPP is, as claimed, a 21st century agreement or just an expanded version of a US-style FTA. While the TPP is undoubtedly a highly ambitious agreement that includes areas unaddressed by WTO disciplines, its success rests ultimately on the dispute settlement procedures.
Hongyong Zhang, 07 January 2016
Negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership were far from smooth sailing, leaving the outlook of Japan’s trade policy uncertain for some time. This column examines the effect of the TPP agreement and the resulting resolution of trade policy uncertainty on the promotion of trade and innovation activities.
Yasuyuki Todo, 24 December 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was reached in October following seven years of negotiations. This column examines how Japan can maximise the TPP’s effect on its economy, identifying several additional policies that will be necessary. These include support for Japanese small and medium enterprises seeking to expand operations overseas, and policies that encourage and ease incoming foreign direct investment.
Kazuhito Yamashita, 02 January 2016
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is being held up as a model for 21st century trade agreements. This column looks into its implications for Japan. It says that agricultural sectors such as rice and beef won’t be affected as some form of protection will remain. It concludes that while the TPP may help Japan gain access to foreign markets, Japanese agriculture has lost another opportunity for revitalisation.
Jayant Menon, 29 November 2015
After more than five years, negotiations surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have finally been concluded. Yet, there is a lot that needs to be done before the agreement comes into force, and there is no certainty that it will. This column examines what TPP has achieved so far, what it has still not achieved, and the next steps involved, including the likely fate of the agreement itself.
Pablo Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal, 28 November 2015
Recent studies have established a causal link between trade and rising wage inequality. This column suggests there is also a pro-poor bias of trade. In moving from autarky to trade, the relative prices of goods consumed intensively by the poor, such as food, fall more. The gains from opening to trade are estimated at 63% for the 10th percentile of the income distribution and 28% for the 90th percentile.
Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, 10 November 2015
There seems to be a general consensus that the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not a pure trade agreement. This column presents evidence suggesting that for at least one major sector – the auto industry – the agreement will make a huge difference, bringing considerable disruption to the industry but offering sizeable gains for car buyers.
Dale Jorgenson, Koji Nomura, Jon Samuels, 08 July 2015
The two lost decades in Japan and the Global Crisis of 2007–2009 have created new opportunities for economic growth. This column describes the evolution of productivity across sectors in Japan and the US and suggests that the greatest payoffs for Japan would come from combining the Trans-Pacific Partnership with domestic reforms and encouraging foreign direct investment.
Gary Hufbauer, 24 June 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement would be the largest single trade agreement concluded worldwide for more than a decade. It would transform world trade governance in ways that are hard to predict. This column discusses the machinations inside the US Congress that gave US negotiators the green light to wrap up the TPP talks. If all goes well, the deal may happen just prior to the APEC Summit in the Philippines in November 2015.
Theodore Moran, Lindsay Oldenski, 15 June 2015
The fate of the TransPacific Partnership rests on US Congressional decisions that will be taken in the next few days. This column discusses research that shows TPP is likely to be pro-jobs, pro-trade, and pro-investment. Blocking the TransPacific Partnership is not a way for members of the US Congress to show that they care about the creation of good jobs in the US.
Gary Hufbauer, 15 June 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership – a trade deal involving the US and 11 partners – has been imperilled by parliamentarian manoeuvres in the US Congress. This column explains the complex links between the trade deal and the Congressional vote and discusses the next steps.
Jason Furman, 20 February 2015
The US economy has strengthened considerably in recent years, presenting an opportunity to address the 40-year stagnation in incomes for the middle class. This column provides historical and international context for the key factors affecting middle-class incomes: productivity growth, labour force participation, and income inequality. It also outlines President Obama’s approach to economic policies – what he terms “middle-class economics” – which is designed to improve all three.
Jayant Menon, 10 November 2014
With WTO trade talks on the brink of failure (again), global trade governance is being decided elsewhere. This column argues that China and the US are pushing competing visions for free trade in Asia-Pacific. The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, could be challenged by a China-led ‘Beijing Road Map’ that may be announced at this week’s APEC summit. Neither vision is an end-game but merely one more stroke on an ugly picture of trade agreements characterised by an unsustainable amount of disorder and incoherence.
Tsuyoshi Kawase, 29 July 2014
The regulation of state-owned enterprises in international trade dealings has been cited as a major stumbling block to progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. This column explains the issues of contention, and argues that state-owned enterprises require an explicit and deliberate regulatory treatment. Given their unique properties, a coherent approach to state-owned enterprise regulation would promote progress in negotiations better than the piecemeal of overlapping rules currently considered.
Jayant Menon, 01 July 2014
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is taking a long time to conclude. This column argues that the TPP agenda, unlike the Doha round, is more ambitious and controversial. Many see it as skewed in favour of one country – the US. There are fears that even the US may lose interest in the Partnership without the fast-track authority given by the current Congress. The only useful way forward is for countries to take matters in their own hands.
Anabel González, 29 May 2014
Mega-regional negotiations will underwrite global governance on 21st-century trade issues and facilitate the proliferation of global and regional value chains. This column writes that Latin American countries would gain from a strengthened and effective WTO to help mitigate the friction and fragmentation that may result from the mega-regionals.
Dennis Novy, 28 May 2014
The negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are about a year old and making only slow progress. This column argues that TTIP is a long-run project that will probably take several years to complete. Despite its significance to global trade, without support from the top echelons of government it might falter.