Debate surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is raging. Economists on different sides of the debate have used different arguments and tools to support their positions. This column surveys several recent studies and the strategies they employ in modelling the potential effects of TPP. It argues that structural models need to start from micro foundations, and need to incorporate trade and macro dynamics. The general results of these studies lend support to those who think that TPP will be beneficial.
Fabio Ghironi, 03 July 2016
Céline Carrère, Anja Grujovic, Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 03 September 2015
When looking at the potential effects of a trade policy, trade economists usually insist on the real income effects, often dismissing its unemployment effects as of second-order importance, whereas policymakers and the public at large tend to voice concerns about jobs gained or lost. This column presents a quantitative framework that weighs both concerns, which is especially important when real incomes and the unemployment rates move in the same direction following a trade reform.
CEP invites academics and practitioners to submit an extended abstract until August 15, 2015 to [email protected]. Further information is at the link below.
- Ejaz Ghani, Lead Economist at The World Bank
- Marion Jansen, Chief Economist at International Trade Centre
- Sebastien Miroudot, Trade Policy Analyst at the OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate
- Sebastian Saez, Senior Trade Economist at The World Bank
- Pierre Sauvé, Director of External Programmes and Academic Partnerships at the WTI
- Johannes Schwarzer, Trade Policy Fellow at CEP
M. Sait Akman, Simon Evenett, Patrick Low, 07 April 2015
Apparently a number of assumptions have been made in Brussels and Washington DC about how the rest of the world will react to the successful conclusion of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Many of the contributions to a new ebook identify alternatives for third countries that do not involve throwing themselves at the mercy of US and European trade negotiators. TTIP may not trigger the chain reaction that its advocates seek.
Jason Furman, 20 February 2015
The US economy has strengthened considerably in recent years, presenting an opportunity to address the 40-year stagnation in incomes for the middle class. This column provides historical and international context for the key factors affecting middle-class incomes: productivity growth, labour force participation, and income inequality. It also outlines President Obama’s approach to economic policies – what he terms “middle-class economics” – which is designed to improve all three.
Lionel Fontagné, Sébastien Jean, 16 November 2014
The TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has become a full-blown political issue as the two largest economic entities in the world are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market. This column estimates that a phasing-out of tariffs accompanied by a 25% cut in the trade restrictiveness of non-tariff measures would increase trade in goods and services between the two regions by 50%.
Jayant Menon, 10 November 2014
With WTO trade talks on the brink of failure (again), global trade governance is being decided elsewhere. This column argues that China and the US are pushing competing visions for free trade in Asia-Pacific. The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, could be challenged by a China-led ‘Beijing Road Map’ that may be announced at this week’s APEC summit. Neither vision is an end-game but merely one more stroke on an ugly picture of trade agreements characterised by an unsustainable amount of disorder and incoherence.
David Saha, 20 July 2014
An early draft of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) sparked an intensive public debate over possible advantages and disadvantages. This column reviews some arguments in favour of the Partnership and against it. While there is some debate over how large the economic benefit could be in the face of already relatively low trade barriers, critics claim that the deal will lower standards of consumer protection, provision of public services, and environmental protection in the EU.
Anabel González, 29 May 2014
Mega-regional negotiations will underwrite global governance on 21st-century trade issues and facilitate the proliferation of global and regional value chains. This column writes that Latin American countries would gain from a strengthened and effective WTO to help mitigate the friction and fragmentation that may result from the mega-regionals.
Dennis Novy, 28 May 2014
The negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are about a year old and making only slow progress. This column argues that TTIP is a long-run project that will probably take several years to complete. Despite its significance to global trade, without support from the top echelons of government it might falter.
Alan Winters, 22 May 2014
Most economists cheer the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership that the EU is currently negotiating with the US. This column argues it is a pity that TTIP and other mega-regional agreements have emerged. It sees the exclusion of China in particular as an existential threat to the world trading system. It urges policymakers in the EU to focus instead on the world trading system or even consider an agreement with China.
Vinod Aggarwal, Simon Evenett, 15 November 2013
Revelations about American spying in Europe – and the backlash they have produced – threatens ongoing EU-US trade talks. This column assesses that threat, highlighting often-overlooked factors, not the least of which is the poor record of allowing security policy concerns to influence trade relations.
Lucian Cernat, 08 November 2013
Trade agenda consists of new and old themes, often closely intertwined. Among the new themes, mega-FTAs– in particular the Trans-Pacific and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership – have been especially popular. This column discusses the nature of mega-FTAs and their relationship with the multilateral rules. The column concludes that such FTAs promote deep regional integration, but also have positive impact on non-members.