Development

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Francesca Dalla Pozza, Ralph De Haas, 16 August 2017

Since the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, post-communist countries have experienced an overhaul of their economic and political institutions. This column highlights five core messages from the most recent Life in Transition Survey, which is conducted periodically by the EBRD and the World Bank to monitor how the transition process impacts people’s perceptions and attitudes. Understanding the process is important as personal experiences largely determine whether people (continue to) support the economic and political institutions that underpin their society.

Aart Kraay, Roy Van der Weide, 14 August 2017

Current approaches to measuring top and bottom incomes cannot track the fortunes of the same group of individuals over time. This column addresses this shortcoming by developing a new method for measuring income mobility. After accounting for mobility, the incomes of those who start out rich grow considerably more slowly, and incomes of those who start out poor grow faster, compared to commonly reported growth rates of top and bottom incomes.

Andrew Rose, 13 August 2017

Policymakers in small countries fear the ‘global financial cycle’ that is apparently driven by US fundamentals. This column argues, in contrast, that 25 years of financial data show that the global financial cycle has explained at most a quarter of the variation in capital flows in these countries. This result gives more wiggle room for small-economy policymakers, but it also means they cannot realistically blame the global financial cycle for domestic economic problems.

Manoj Atolia, Bin Grace Li, Ricardo Marto, Giovanni Melina, 08 August 2017

Despite investment in education appearing to be a more pressing need in many developing countries, spending on roads often exceeds that on schools. This column argues that the different pace with which roads and schools contribute to economic growth is central to governments’ optimal allocation decision. Investment in schools tends to lead to a larger long-run increase in output, but the effects are more delayed than for investment in roads. This trade-off contributes to the bias towards roads, in particular when government concerns about debt sustainability and policymakers’ myopia are taken into consideration.

Thomas Baudin, David de la Croix, Paula E. Gobbi, 25 July 2017

The fertility of women in developing countries is higher on average than in developed countries, yet many women in developing countries remain childless. This column argues that understanding the causes of why some women choose childlessness is important if we wish to predict the impact that development policies have on the demographic transition of poor countries.

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