Development

Francisco Costa, Jason Garred, João Pessoa, 24 September 2017

In addition to being a competitor for other countries’ industries, China has also become an increasingly important consumer of goods produced elsewhere. This column looks at how the steep rise in ‘commodities-for-manufactures’ trade with China has affected workers in Brazil. While the analysis confirms a negative effect of Chinese import competition on employees of manufacturing firms, it also suggests that growth in trade with China has created some winners in Brazil, with wages rising more quickly in parts of the country benefiting more from increasing Chinese demand.

Daniel Aaronson, Rajeev Dehejia, Andrew Jordan, Cristian Pop-Eleches , Cyrus Samii, Karl Schulze, 15 September 2017

Women’s fertility and labour supply decisions are made simultaneously, making it difficult to identify the effect of the former on the latter. This column explores the relationship using a dataset spanning 200 years and 103 countries, leveraging twin births to isolate causal effects. The key finding is that as countries develop, women’s labour supply becomes more responsive to additional children. The global decline in fertility over the last century has played a positive role in increasing women’s work in developed countries, but a negligible one in developing countries.

Bernard Hoekman, Anirudh Shingal, 13 September 2017

Research on the effects of Aid for Trade has focused mostly on merchandise trade and investment in developing countries. This column discusses the relationship between Aid for Trade and trade in services and finds that while most Aid for Trade is allocated to service sectors, this is not associated with greater trade in services, in contrast to what is observed for trade in goods. These findings suggest that Aid for Trade could do more to target capacity weaknesses that constrain growth in services trade.

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, Gabriel Ulyssea, 31 August 2017

Local economic shocks induced by the Brazilian trade liberalisation had substantial effects on homicides. This column examines these effects and attempts to disentangle the mechanisms through which they occurred. Reductions in employment rates appear to have been the main driving force.

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Francesca Dalla Pozza, Ralph De Haas, 17 August 2017

Since the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, post-communist countries have experienced an overhaul of their economic and political institutions. This column highlights five core messages from the most recent Life in Transition Survey, which is conducted periodically by the EBRD and the World Bank to monitor how the transition process impacts people’s perceptions and attitudes. Understanding the process is important as personal experiences largely determine whether people (continue to) support the economic and political institutions that underpin their society.

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