Energy

Mark Gradstein, Marc Klemp, 23 June 2017

A large literature has argued that natural resources have a negative effect on economic development. The Brazilian data used in this column fail to confirm these findings. Economic activity, as measured using night-time light data, increases more during periods of rising oil prices in localities with better access to oil.  Oil revenue windfalls accruing to oil-rich locations and spillovers to adjacent locations drive this effect. 

Amyra Asamoah, Emine Hanedar, Baoping Shang, 12 June 2017

Despite a growing consensus in favour of reform of costly and environmentally damaging energy price subsidies, many countries remain resistant. This column takes stock of recent developments using an updated energy price database. Environmental concerns seem to be playing a larger role in driving reform, but most reforming countries are found to have been facing large fiscal imbalances. These countries may need additional, deeper measures for the reforms to last.

Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, 18 May 2017

The sluggish growth of the US economy after the 2014-2016 decline in the oil price surprised many economists. This column argues that it should have been expected. The modest stimulus to private consumption and non-oil business investment was largely offset by a large decline in investment by the oil sector. Growth was further slowed by a simultaneous global economic slowdown, reflected in lower US exports. 

Lutz Kilian, 02 April 2017

Technological advances caused a boom in the production of ‘tight’ oil in the US, starting in 2008, which has changed how the US is affected by movements in global fuel prices. This column identifies how the US tight oil boom contributed to the decline of global oil prices in 2014-16, and how it has changed the way oil price shocks are transmitted – not just in the US but in the global economy, explaining how European gasoline prices have been less responsive than the US price of gasoline to shocks.

Thorsten Beck, Steven Poelhekke, 26 February 2017

The financial sector plays a critical role in intermediating domestic savings into domestic investment, so it should serve as an important absorption tool for natural resource windfalls. Using a panel dataset of over 150 developed and developing countries, this column argues that unexpected exogenous windfalls from natural resource rents are not intermediated. The findings are consistent with the negative long-term relationship between the reliance of a country on natural resources and financial sector development.

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