EU policies

Lorenzo Caliendo, Luca David Opromolla, Fernando Parro, Alessandro Sforza, 10 October 2017

The effects of international trade and of international migration have been central to the recent debate on economic integration. Evaluating trade and migration policies is challenging, however, because they often take place at the same time and reinforce each other, making it hard to distinguish their effects. This column uses a general equilibrium approach to quantify the effects of the 2004 EU enlargement. It finds that all EU countries gained from enlargement, but that the largest winners were the new member states, and in particular their low-skilled workers.

Marco Buti, Alessandro Turrini, 06 October 2017

Exceptionally low wage growth is at the heart of low Eurozone inflation, while wage growth differentials are not contributing enough to a symmetric rebalancing in the currency union. This column discusses the role that wage developments at the Eurozone level can play in supporting monetary policy and fostering external rebalancing. Although wage setting is a prerogative and not a policy under direct government control, a rationale for the coordination of a number of government policies affecting competitiveness exists, and potential benefits are apparent in the current context.

Vítor Constâncio, Philipp Hartmann, Peter McAdam, 29 September 2017

The European Central Bank’s 2017 Sintra Forum on Central Banking built a bridge from the currently strengthening recovery in Europe to longer-term growth issues for, and structural change in, advanced economies. In this column the organisers highlight some of the main points from the discussions, including what the sources of weak productivity and investment are and what type of economic polarisation tendencies the new growth model seems to be associated with.

Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, 20 September 2017

The European Commission president’s suggestion that joining the euro should be compulsory for all EU members is not well received by over three quarters of leading economists responding to the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey. This column also reveals how, when asked a broader question about the success of the common currency, half the experts think it has had more benefits than costs, while only a quarter think the opposite. The majority view is that there have been significant benefits, but the way the Eurozone has been operated has also imposed significant costs.

Jacques Bughin, Jan Mischke, 04 August 2017

The economic narrative of the EU since the Global Crisis has focused on successive debt crises and persistent stagnation. This column addresses the accompanying, but less well studied, investment slump that occurred over the last decade, using evidence from an extensive survey of business decisionmakers across Europe. Business sentiment towards increased investment is affected not just by historic cash flows and expected future demand, but also the growth of digital economies as well as political concerns such as anti-Europe sentiment.

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