Europe's nations and regions

Christian Ebeke, Kodjovi Eklou, 19 January 2018

The economics profession has generally explained large movements in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP or employment by shocks to other aggregates. This is in part due to the difficulty of translating micro or localised shocks into macro-relevant ‘news’. This column argues that idiosyncratic shocks at the biggest European firms are behind 40% percent of aggregate GDP fluctuations in Europe. These results have implications for the effectiveness of traditional demand-side policies in the fine-tuning of granular economies.

Thomas Sampson, Dennis Novy, 08 January 2018

The average British household is already worse off than it was before the Brexit vote. Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson discuss how much of the rise in inflation is due to Brexit. Higher prices are costing the average household £404 a year. Click for full study.

Wen Chen, Bart Los, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argiles , Mark Thissen, Frank van Oort, 19 December 2017

Analyses of the impact of various types of Brexit at the national level hide a lot of regional economic heterogeneity. This column deploys a new interregional dataset to quantify the shares of regional labour income that are exposed to the implications of Brexit for trade, taking into account the indirect effects of supply chain relations. The results show that much more is at stake for UK regions than for the rest of the EU, with the exception of Ireland.

Richard Baldwin, Vesa Vihriälä, 19 December 2017

Despite the setbacks globalisation has faced in recent years from reactionary politics, the advent of artificial intelligence and robotisation are set to ensure its continuation. Domestic policy must therefore be designed in such a way as to reap the rewards of globalisation while avoiding its pitfalls. This column uses the case of Finland to show how this can be done. Finland has grown faster than its peers over two waves of globalisation, despite enduring substantial setbacks. In both its successes and challenges, it is an important example of the need for deliberate policies to prepare for future disruptions.

Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith Crowley, Oliver Exton, Lu Han, 13 December 2017

As the recent UK Parliament Select Committee hearing revealed, there is a dearth of analysis of the sector-level risk to exports of a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario. This column presents an analysis by sector and product, and delivers both good and bad news. In a scenario where trade reverts to WTO rules, the good news is that one-third of UK exports to the EU will remain tariff-free. The bad news is that one-quarter of exports will face high tariffs and/or the risk of restrictive quotas or antidumping duties.

Other Recent Articles:

Events