Financial markets

Eilyn Yee Lin Chong, Ashoka Mody, Francisco Varela Sandoval, 17 January 2017

Recent research suggests a point beyond which the benefits of financial development diminish, and further development can even hurt growth. This column describes how a negative relationship between credit and growth emerged strongly after 1990 and was particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, consistent with the notion that an overgrown financial sector weakens economic growth potential. It also argues that slower growth leads to more rapid financial sector expansion. Policymakers need to be aware of the possibility that causality runs in both directions.

Kristopher S. Gerardi, Kyle Herkenhoff, Lee Ohanian, Paul S. Willen, 10 January 2017

Many studies have addressed the question of why people default on their mortgages, but lack of data has meant that much of this research has omitted the effect of the owner's ability to pay. This column uses panel data on defaults and changes in income to show that ability to pay is a much more important determinant of default than previously recognised. If the head of household loses a job, for example, this is equivalent to the effect of a 35% drop in home equity. Policies targeted at increasing ability to pay may be more effective at reducing default than those that try to remedy negative equity.

Nicholas Kozeniauskas, Laura Veldkamp, 03 January 2017

Uncertainty shocks are a major avenue of research in the quest to explain business cycles, as well as asset prices and financial crises. This column argues that three conceptually distinct types of uncertainty that are often modelled independently – ‘macro’ uncertainty about an aggregate variable such as GDP, ‘micro’ uncertainty about firms’ individual outcomes, and ‘higher-order’ uncertainty that people have about the beliefs of others – are in fact related because all three are tied to disaster risk.

Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Zhaogang Song, 26 November 2016

The Global Crisis of 2008 highlighted the role of intertwined financial markets in shaping the transmission of risk and the build-up of fragility throughout the system. This column investigates the role of dealer networks in the corporate bond market. Network relationships appear to act as a buffer in periods of distress, but also accentuate systemic fragility as connections with vulnerable dealers might affect trading outcomes even for sound dealers.

Selim Elekdag, Gaston Gelos, 24 November 2016

The relationship between corporate governance and financial stability has received little attention in the context of emerging markets. Using new firm-level indices of governance in emerging markets, this column shows that both firm-level governance and governance frameworks have generally improved at the country level over recent years. These stronger frameworks have enhanced the resilience of firms to global shocks, and bolstered balance sheets.

Other Recent Articles:

Events