Frontiers of economic research

[field_auth], 20 August 2016

Experiments have revealed that humans often suffer from overconfidence in the accuracy of their information, or ‘miscalibration’. This column uses data from surveys of CFOs to assess their ability to make financial predictions. The results suggest not only that CFOs are miscalibrated, but also that firms with miscalibrated executives appear to be more aggressive in their corporate policies. In other words, the overconfidence of the executive shows up in the company’s policies.

[field_auth], 07 August 2016

Policymakers use a well established traditional accounting method to analyse past paths and predict future paths of debt ratios. But the traditional accounting exercises underemphasise the role of economic growth. This column proposes a simple, extended accounting framework to recognise the importance of growth more fully and explicitly. It quantifies the role of economic growth in debt-to-GDP measurement for Ireland and Italy, who were similarly placed in 2012 but whose paths diverged significantly in subsequent years.

[field_auth], 04 August 2016

On 23 June 2016, 52% of British voters decided the UK should leave the European Union, in a decision that went against the advice of most economists. This column assesses the quality of that advice, and argues that while gaps in knowledge may have hindered forecasts, Brexit can essentially be put down to three things: an unnecessary manifesto pledge by David Cameron, a lack of engagement by the City in the Remain campaign, and the pro-Brexit stance of some of the UK's major newspapers. 

[field_auth], 26 July 2016

Today, VoxEU.org introduces a new feature – “VoxAccounts” – which is the first step towards building a more interactive community of economists interested in research-based policy analysis and commentary. The aim is to allow Vox community members to customise their interactions with the site. You join by creating a VoxAccount. Creating a VoxAccount is free, and indeed all content on VoxEU.org will remain free of charge, but we will gradually introduce features that require readers to be logged in to their VoxAccounts.

[field_auth], 22 July 2016

Econophysics is an emerging field applying theories and methods from physics to economic problems and data. This column explores the collective motions of trade and the effects of trade liberalisation, using global data from the past two decades. Econophysics methods reveal how business cycles synchronise, and how economic risk propagates throughout the global economic network. The results also highlight inherent problems of structural controllability that are induced during economic crises.

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