International trade

Richard Baldwin, Paul Collier, Anthony Venables, 29 March 2017

Regardless of what one may think of the decision, the British people have voted to leave the EU – a result that throws up historic challenges as well as historic opportunities. This column introduces CEPR's latest Policy Insight, which suggests that Brexit should be viewed as an important opportunity for fresh thinking.

Chang-Tai Hsieh, Nicholas Li, Ralph Ossa, Mu-Jeung Yang, 26 March 2017

Trade economists typically believe that in addition to lower prices for imported goods, trade liberalisation also brings import variety and domestic productivity gains. This column accounts for these ‘new’ gains in a careful reconsideration of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement. Although the agreement did see improvements in Canadian income associated with import variety and domestic productivity, these were far outweighed by the welfare loss associated with the reduction in domestic variety. Nonetheless, Canadian welfare did improve overall when one takes into account the ‘traditional’ gains associated with lower import prices.

Doireann Fitzgerald, Stefanie Haller, Yaniv Yedid-Levi, 25 March 2017

Tariffs across the world may be set to increase for the first time in generations, but the impact of this on trade will depend on the way in which exporters and potential exporters make decisions. Using data on Ireland's manufacturing exports, this column describes how the evolution of quantities and prices for export entrants suggests an important role for the customer base in explaining exporter behaviour. 

Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe, Kevin O'Rourke, 24 March 2017

With Brexit looming, and protectionist pressures mounting elsewhere in the developed world, the question of whether trade policy matters is taking on more significance. This column looks at the extent to which trade policy was responsible for the shift towards intra-imperial trade in the interwar period. Both tariffs and quotas increased the Empire’s share of British trade, suggesting that trade policy mattered more for interwar trade patterns than the cliometric literature has suggested.

Alessandro Borin, Virginia Di Nino, Michele Mancini, Massimo Sbracia, 23 March 2017

Recent global trade growth is even more disappointing than global GDP growth. This column argues that this unexpected weakness of trade relative to GDP is related to the high volatility and pro-cyclicality of real trade flows, and that cyclical forces are the main drivers. It also shows that the accuracy of existing trade forecasts can be improved using real-time data on business conditions.

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