Migration

Darrell Duffie , Piotr Dworczak, 01 November 2014

Recent scandals involving some financial benchmarks have shaken the confidence in them. Regulators have responded with sanctions and with actions to support more robust benchmarks. This column presents new research on how a benchmark administrator would optimally weigh transaction prices to produce a fixing. Weights assigned to the observed prices should be increasing in the size of the transactions. However, in this setting, it is typically impossible to implement a benchmark in a complete absence of manipulation.   

Katharina Knoll, Moritz Schularick, Thomas Steger, 01 November 2014

House price fluctuations take centre stage in recent macroeconomic debates, but little is known about their long-run evolution. This column presents new house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Real house prices display a pronounced hockey-stick pattern over the past 140 years. They stayed constant from the 19th to the mid-20th century, but rose strongly in the second half of the 20th century. Sharply increasing land prices, not construction costs, were the key driver of this trend.

Aleksi Aaltonen, Stephan Seiler, 31 October 2014

Many organisations are developing open platforms to create, store, and share knowledge. This column analyses editing data by Wikipedia users to show how content creation by individuals generates significant ‘spillover’ benefits, encouraging others to contribute to the collective process of knowledge production.

Lawrence Summers, 30 October 2014

The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with low inflation could indefinitely prevent the attainment of full employment.

Atish R Ghosh, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, Naotaka Sugawara, 30 October 2014

Capital flows to emerging markets have been very volatile since the global financial crisis. This has kindled debates on whether – and how – to better manage cross-border capital flows. In this column, the authors examine the role of capital account restrictions in both source and recipient countries in taming destabilising capital flows. The results indicate that capital account restrictions at either end can significantly lower the volume of cross-border flows.  

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