Monetary policy

Mojmir Hampl, Tomas Havranek, 11 September 2017

Seven out of every ten Europeans live in their own homes, yet Europe’s most important inflation measure excludes the costs associated with owner-occupied housing. This column argues that including the costs of home ownership would prove beneficial to the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy. It would also bring the measure closer to what most people consider inflation to be.

Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Mehmet Fatih Ulu, 01 September 2017

Most models assume capital flows are endogenous to the business cycle, and that inflows increase during an economy’s ‘boom’ periods. This column shows that the international no-arbitrage condition in fact does not hold, and that capital flows are pushed into an economy due to high global risk appetite. Controlling for domestic monetary policy responses to capital flows and changes in the exchange rate, exogenous capital inflows lower real borrowing costs and fuel credit expansion.

Wim Boonstra, 25 August 2017

Measured in dollars, the US is by far the most indebted country in the world. As this column describes, however, the country still has a positive capital income in spite of its high net debt position, and its external debt position is much smaller than one would expect based on cumulated current account deficits. Furthermore, fluctuations in the dollar exchange rates have a strong direct effect on the country’s international investment position. As long as it can finance its external obligations in dollars, its international debt position is no cause for concern for the US. For the rest of the world, however, the story may be different.

Vítor Constâncio, Philipp Hartmann, Peter McAdam, 23 August 2017

The European Central Bank’s 2017 Sintra Forum on Central Banking built a bridge from the currently strengthening recovery in Europe to longer-term growth issues for, and structural change in, advanced economies. In this column the organisers highlight some of the main points from the discussions, including what the sources of weak productivity and investment are and what type of economic polarisation tendencies the new growth model seems to be associated with.

Giovanna Bua, Peter Dunne, 10 August 2017

By the end of April 2017, the Eurosystem's balance sheet contained €1.8 trillion of assets, mainly as a consequence of asset purchase programmes. This column analyses the portfolio rebalancing effects of the ECB’s programme. The original holders of the assets eligible for purchase by the ECB mainly purchased bonds of deposit-taking corporations outside the Eurozone. Investment funds and their investors did not rebalance significantly toward Eurozone equities or corporate bonds. While exchange rate and cost of capital effects are positive outcomes from the programme, local rebalancing effects appear to be non-existent.

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