Politics and economics

Axel Dreher, Martin Gassebner, Paul Schaudt, 12 August 2017

Stricter immigration and visa policies are a common reaction to terrorist attacks. This column uses historical data from 20 OECD countries to show that while the number of terror attacks increased with the number of foreigners living in a host country, migrants were not more likely to become terrorists than the locals of the country in which they were living. The results also show that bans on Muslim immigration would be more likely to increase the risk of terror than make the domestic population safer.

Gino Gancia, Giacomo Ponzetto, Jaume Ventura, 26 July 2017

The number of countries in the world more than halved during the first wave of globalisation, but then rose significantly during the second. Border changes have been much more peaceful during this second wave, and this column asserts that these observations are consistent with a theory in which political structure adapts to expanding trade opportunities. Globalisation makes borders costly. In its early stages, borders are removed by increasing country size, while in later stages, the cost of borders is removed by creating peaceful economic unions, leading to a reduction in country size.

Marco Buti, Servaas Deroose, José Leandro, Gabriele Giudice, 13 July 2017

Despite much being done to strengthen the Economic and Monetary Union, it remains incomplete and this is one of the main reasons for the Eurozone's lacklustre economic performance in the recent years. While there are still diverging views on how to "cross the river", there is also a political and economic window of opportunity to complete the EMU architecture. This column discusses the ideas presented in a new European Commission Reflection Paper aimed at relaunching the debate on how to move forward, with a focus on bridging the differences between the member states that stress responsibility and risk reduction and those calling for solidarity and risk sharing.

Hannes Mueller, Dominic Rohner, David Schönholzer, 12 July 2017

The nature of military and social conflict has changed in the last three decades, particularly in the way it impacts civilians locally. This column presents new research that models localised conflict based on the spatial configuration of groups, using evidence from conflict in Northern Ireland. The model can help target policies at the origin of attacks and with attempts to change the interaction between local groups, reducing conflict in the short-to-medium term.

Dani Rodrik, 03 July 2017

Populism has been on the rise for quite some time, and it is doubtful that it will be going away. This column argues that the populist backlash to globalisation should not have come as a surprise, in light of economic history and economic theory. While the backlash may have been predictable, however, the specific forms it took were less so, and are related to the forms in which globalisation shocks make themselves felt in society.

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