Absent revaluation, retaliation? Reactions to US restrictions on Chinese exports

Kati Suominen 16 April 2010

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There is no question that the renminbi is blatantly undervalued, and there is no question that it is undervalued because of deliberate measures by the Chinese government. There is also no question that, in part because of the undervalued currency, China contributes to the US trade deficit and global imbalances. By subsidising exports, China’s currency regime unfairly tilts the level playing field the GATT/WTO system has pursued for six decades.

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Topics:  Exchange rates

Tags:  China, protectionism, exchange-rate policy

US policy approaches to China’s currency

Philip Levy 16 April 2010

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In the increasingly heated American political discourse about China’s exchange rate, there have been loud cries for action, often unaccompanied by thorough analysis. At a minimum, before adopting any given policy, the US should identify the actions it wishes China to take; it should assess which policy prompts are most likely to bring about that result; and it should carefully consider the possible ramifications of its actions.

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Topics:  Exchange rates

Tags:  global imbalances, China, protectionism, exchange-rate policy

Would freeing up world farm trade reduce or increase poverty?

Kym Anderson, John Cockburn, Will Martin 28 April 2010

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Trade policy reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions that were harming agriculture in developing countries. Yet global trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods, and model results suggest removing the remaining distortions would put upward pressure on food prices in international markets. Economists argue that such multilateral reform is welfare-improving globally, since its market opening leads to a more efficient location of farm production.

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Topics:  International trade Poverty and income inequality

Tags:  protectionism, Global poverty, agricultural trade

Correcting the Chinese exchange rate: An action plan

Fred Bergsten 16 April 2010

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The Chinese renminbi is undervalued by about 25% on a trade-weighted average basis and by about 40% against the dollar (Cline and Williamson 2009 and Goldstein and Lardy 2009)1. The Chinese authorities buy about $1 billion daily in the exchange markets to keep their currency from rising and thus to maintain an artificially strong competitive position.

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Topics:  Exchange rates

Tags:  global imbalances, China, protectionism, exchange-rate policy

Antidumping: Much ado about nothing?

Hylke Vandenbussche, Maurizio Zanardi 08 March 2010

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Despite the global crisis, countries have by and large upheld their pledge not to increase protectionism. Despite this, some protectionism seems to be creeping in – mainly in the form of antidumping measures (Bown 2010, Evenett 2009).

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Topics:  Global crisis International trade

Tags:  antidumping, global crisis, protectionism

Figuring out the Doha Round

Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott , Woan Foong Wong 22 February 2010

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Crisis-linked unemployment remains stubbornly high, and protectionist pressures are mounting (Bown 2010, Evenett 2010). Sustaining political support for the rules-based multilateral trade system is more important than ever to the global economy. A key element of this support – concluding the WTO’s ongoing multilateral trade talks – is suffering from a lack of political will.

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Topics:  International trade

Tags:  Doha Round, international trade, protectionism

Will Stabilisation Limit Protectionism? The 4th GTA Report

Simon J Evenett,

Date Published

Thu, 02/18/2010

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Will stabilisation limit protectionism?

Simon J Evenett 18 February 2010

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After contracting sharply in the first half of 2009, many economies stabilised and some even began to recover in the last quarter of 2009. Using information compiled through mid-February 2010, the fourth report of the Global Trade Alert examines whether macroeconomic stabilisation has altered governments' resort to protectionism. Has economic recovery advanced enough so that national policymakers now feel little or no pressure to restrict international commerce?

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  protectionism, Global Trade Alert

Antidumping, safeguards, and protectionism during the crisis: Two new insights from 4th quarter 2009

Chad P Bown 18 February 2010

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When the economy is down, protection is up.1 But this old story has taken on new urgency. As the crisis is global and synchronised, and as high unemployment continues to generate protectionist pressures, the protectionist reaction has been broader than usual (Evenett 2009). While 1930s style protectionism seems unlikely for the moment, rising protection is, or should be, a global concern. Exports are the key to the macroeconomic recoveries for a wide range of nations.

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Topics:  Global crisis International trade

Tags:  antidumping, global crisis, protectionism

The impact of crisis-driven protectionism on EU exports: The “Russian doll” effect

Lucian Cernat, Nuno Sousa 09 January 2010

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The trade collapse of 2009 was as severe as in the Great Depression – if not more so.

The two years following the Smoot-Hawley tariff of June 1930 saw the volume of U.S. imports fall by over 40%. Misguided trade policy was responsible for 25% of this trade collapse. The Smoot-Hawley tariff alone accounted for 4%–8%, while the combination of specific duties and deflation – which further raised the effective tariff – reduced imports by an additional 8%–10% (Irwin, 1998).

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Topics:  Global crisis International trade

Tags:  trade policy, EU, global crisis, protectionism

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