International financial spillovers from emerging markets have increased significantly over the last 20 years. This column argues that growing financial integration of emerging economies is more important than their rising share in global trade in driving this trend, that firms with lower liquidity and higher borrowing are more subject to spillovers, and that mutual funds are amplifying spillover effects. Policymakers in developed economies should pay increased attention to future spillovers from emerging markets, particularly from China.
Gaston Gelos, Jay Surti, 19 August 2016
Paolo Mauro, 07 August 2016
Policymakers use a well established traditional accounting method to analyse past paths and predict future paths of debt ratios. But the traditional accounting exercises underemphasise the role of economic growth. This column proposes a simple, extended accounting framework to recognise the importance of growth more fully and explicitly. It quantifies the role of economic growth in debt-to-GDP measurement for Ireland and Italy, who were similarly placed in 2012 but whose paths diverged significantly in subsequent years.
Peter Bofinger, 07 June 2016
At first sight, it is difficult to explain why the macroeconomic debate and macroeconomic policy in Germany differ considerably from other countries, despite the same academic textbooks and models being used as elsewhere. This column explains how a specific paradigm of macroeconomics, developed by Walter Eucken and diametrically opposed to Keynesian economics, is behind the German formal theoretical apparatus. The success of German macroeconomic policy can be attributed to the openness of the German economy, which allows it to benefit from macroeconomic policies pursued in other major countries.
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha, Wouter den Haan, 23 December 2015
In November, the Chancellor of the Exchequer unveiled plans for debt reduction in the UK over the rest of this Parliament. This column compiles the views of several experts on these plans, taken from a Centre for Macroeconomics survey. A significant number of respondents felt that the plans for debt reduction were not appropriate. There were also widespread doubts that the Chancellor’s Charter for Budgetary Responsibility would help underpin the credibility of fiscal policy.
Dennis Reinhardt, Cameron McLoughlin, Ludovic Gauvin, 05 November 2014
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, policymakers and academics alike discussed how uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic policymaking has impacted domestic investment. At the same time, concerns regarding the spillover impact of monetary policy in advanced economies on emerging market economies featured strongly in the international policy debate. This column draws the two debates together, and examines how policy uncertainty in advanced economies has spilled over to emerging markets via portfolio capital flows. It finds remarkable differences in the spillover effects of EU vs. US policy uncertainty.
Moreno Bertoldi, Philip Lane, Valérie Rouxel-Laxton, Paolo Pesenti, 24 October 2014
The reason for the divergent macroeconomic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic after the Crisis remains a hotly debated subject. The topic was also discussed at the recent “Macroeconomic Policy Mix in the Transatlantic Economy” workshop. This column summarises the main discussions at the workshop. Other covered topics included secular stagnation, the output effects of fiscal consolidation, cross-border banking (as a source and propagator of shocks), and the asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policies.
Francesco Giavazzi, Guido Tabellini, 25 September 2014
In a recent column, the authors suggested coordinating monetary and fiscal expansions in the Eurozone through a money-financed temporary tax cut. The effectiveness of their proposal, however, has been questioned. In this column, the authors address some of the criticisms. They argue that the counter-cyclical fiscal policies adopted by the US and the UK, together with monetary easing, had a stabilising effect on output. Moral hazard due to the more lax monetary and fiscal policies is avoidable, increasing the credibility of the future spending cuts.
Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Paolo Mauro, 31 May 2013
The Global Crisis has shaken the consensus on how to run macroeconomic policy. Three years ago, the authors discussed this issue on VoxEU.org. This column takes a more granular look at new efforts to rethink macroeconomic policy. It takes stock of early results and provides a more detailed agenda for the key issues that should keep policymakers and academic macroeconomists busy in the next few years.
Richard Wood, 19 December 2012
Five years after the subprime bubble burst, the self-correcting nature of business cycles is being questioned and, subsequently, orthodox macroeconomic policy is starting to be challenged. This column introduces a radical rethink of options open to macroeconomic policymakers, suggesting that in order to simultaneously achieve economic stimulus without increasing debt, new money creation should be used to directly finance on-going budget deficits.
Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah, 20 November 2012
Can we agree that capital controls are an effective tool for macroeconomic policy? If so, should they be permanent or temporary? This column argues that under a permanent system of capital controls, a country will always bear costs whether there is a surge or capital flight or not. Looking at the Indian experience, it’s clear that capital controls do not necessarily help a government meet its macroeconomic goals in times of need.
Richard Wood, 31 August 2012
The crisis is deepening in Europe, and recession is spreading globally. This column argues that macroeconomic policies have failed to overcome the dual problems of flagging aggregate demand and high and spiralling public debt. It urges policymakers to abandon failed orthodoxies and irrelevant treaties and consider new, alternative solutions.
Olivier Blanchard, 23 March 2011
The global economic crisis has taught us to question our most cherished beliefs about the way we conduct macroeconomic policy. In this column, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard lays out his thoughts, arguing that we are far from a new Washington Consensus. Exploration is the order of the day.
Anna Pavlova, Roberto Rigobon, 15 February 2011
International macro-finance is a new area of open economy macroeconomics that brings portfolio choice and asset pricing considerations into models of international macroeconomics. This column argues that the recent global crisis illustrates just how important these considerations are. It surveys recent developments in international macro-finance and suggests several promising directions for future research.
Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest, Andreas Peichl, 17 September 2010
While debate rages over the appropriate size and timing of fiscal expansions, this column points out that much less attention is devoted to role of the automatic stabilisers in the tax and transfer system. It compares these stabilisers in Europe and the US, finding that social transfers play a key role in the stabilisation of disposable incomes and consumer demand.
Robert Inman, 15 September 2010
What can we learn from US President Obama’s fiscal stimulus? This column argues that channelling the stimulus package through state governments exposed it to agency costs, free-riding problem, and political expediency. As a result, the stimulus has failed to meet its objectives at the state level. The lesson is that fiscal stimulus should be conducted centrally.
The Economics Interest Section of the European Union Studies Association (EUSA) and the Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are pleased to announce an economics workshop on European Integration. The meeting will be held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on 18-19th March, 2010 linked to a one-day public conference that the Institute is organising on 17 March on 10 years of the euro.
Papers on any aspect of European economic integration are welcome, as well as papers that place European integration in the context of the ongoing globalization of trade and capital flows. Abstracts are to be sent to both Patrick Crowley at [email protected] and David Mayes at [email protected] by January 10th, 2010. Please indicate whether you would also be willing to serve as a chair and/or discussant.
Axel Leijonhufvud, 11 July 2009
The current financial system poses three major sources of risk to macroeconomic stability – price level instability, the increased system-wide leverage, and the increased global connectivity of the financial system. This column proposes policy alternatives to deal with these challenges.
The MSc in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets is a one-year full-time Master taught in English and provides participants with the relevant knowledge about the central issues in macroeconomic and financial economics analysis, as well as the key tools, data and models. Some examples are DSGE models, VAR’s, and ARCH. Participants learn not only how to use these modeling and statistical techniques but also how they are actually applied by government agencies and private financial firms. For more information, please visit www.barcelonagse.eu/MFM/html.
Eswar Prasad, 28 January 2009
The crisis has shattered predictions on the unravelling of global macroeconomic imbalances. The US dollar has resisted rather well, US treasury bonds remain the safe-heaven investment of choice, and the world economy still seems tied to US demand. These elements point to the intensification of global macroeconomic imbalances during the recovery of the global economy. This column proposes global solutions to avoid a new derailment