Kaushik Basu, Parikshit Ghosh, 21 June 2017

Ravi Kanbur, 13 June 2017

With the World Bank now far from the only game in town in providing development finance, this column argues that it should focus on issues which are truly global in scope, but questions the suitability of the World Bank’s signature instrument, the sovereign loan. The international community does rely on the Word Bank for one global public good – global consensus building – but the current situation of veto power in the hands of a US government which does not acknowledge global public good issues, as evidenced by its withdrawal from the Paris accord, is potentially lethal for perceived and actual independence in consensus building.

Angus Deaton, Bettina Aten, 15 July 2014

José Cuesta, Mario Negre, Christoph Lakner, 07 November 2016

The percentage of people living in extreme poverty around the world has fallen by more than half over the past three decades. But polls show that most people are not only ignorant of this fact, but believe that poverty has increased. This column explores progress towards ending global poverty by 2030, the first of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Poverty figures have fallen around the world since 1990, and there is a broad consensus on the policies needed for further reductions. Eradicating global poverty is achievable, but it is dependent on global and domestic political cooperation.

John Gibson, 01 September 2016

Different survey methodologies are typically employed to produce estimates of global hunger. This column considers some of the methodological issues that arise. Short reference periods for each household lead to overstated variances and the confounding of chronic and transient welfare components. The column goes on to present a new approach to measuring chronic hunger which tackles this sampling problem by employing an intra-year panel. 

Alex Pienkowski, Joyce Saito, Suchanan Tambunlertchai, 28 March 2016

Initiatives to reduce public debt in low-income countries have made substantial progress over the past decade, but challenges remain and continue to evolve. This column presents the findings from a new IMF-World Bank report on these developments. Low-income countries have benefited from debt relief and favourable economic conditions, resulting in generally lower debt burdens and vulnerabilities. There has also been a shift in debt financing, with greater reliance on emerging market economies, international capital markets, and domestic sources. However, more recently, risks have begun to re-emerge necessitating fiscal prudence and improved debt management.

Longfeng Ye, Peter Robertson, 01 February 2016

The World Bank has identified 37 countries as being in a ‘middle-income trap’, but few formal tests of the middle-income trap hypothesis exist. This column presents a new test based on a more nuanced observation that incorporates information on a country’s long-run growth path. Only seven out of 46 middle-income countries are found to be potentially ‘trapped’. Some countries that are usually considered to be trapped may just be growing very slowly.

Jamal Haidar, Takeo Hoshi, 21 October 2015

The Abe administration has outlined a desire for Japan to rank among the top three OECD countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking. This column uses the Doing Business ranking itself to identify potential reforms the country could pursue to improve its position. Several politically viable, non-judicial reforms could quickly and easily move Japan up in the ranking. The approach highlights how the Doing Business rankings can be used to inform policy reform discussions.

Brian Pinto, 17 December 2014

Since the Global Crisis, concerns have grown that advanced economies are suffering from secular stagnation. This column discusses the lessons that can be learnt from the economic transition of central and eastern Europe and the emerging-market crises of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Structural reform is particularly costly in the context of a debt overhang and an overvalued exchange rate. However, the crux is not debt restructuring per se, but whether economic governance changes credibly for the better following it.

Giang Ho, Paolo Mauro, 12 September 2014

Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Is this optimism warranted by past international growth experience? This column explores this question by looking at economic growth forecasts at longer-term horizons.

Pradumna Rana, 05 August 2014

China’s frustration with the slow progress of IMF governance reform has contributed to the evolution of a China-led architecture that locks out the West – the latest examples being the New Development Bank and the Credit Reserve Arrangement established by the BRICS. This column argues that these institutions are not a threat to the IMF and the World Bank, but they complicate global economic governance. It is unlikely that Europe’s ‘troika’ model – where the IMF works jointly with regional financing facilities – will be possible in Asia. We perhaps need a New Bretton Woods.

Angus Deaton, Bettina Aten, 16 July 2014

When the international comparison project published its latest estimates of purchasing power parity exchange rates in April there was some consternation. Poor countries became richer overnight, world GDP increased, and global income inequality was revised downwards. Alas, no one stopped being poor. This column digs into the numbers to see if we’ve been consistently underestimating the relative size of poorer economies and overestimating global poverty and inequality.

David Dollar, Tatjana Kleineberg, Aart Kraay, 19 November 2013

A key Millennium Development Goal was to halve the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day. This was met five years ahead of schedule, and the World Bank is promoting a new goal of ‘shared prosperity’ defined in terms of the growth rate of incomes in the bottom 40% of households. This column discusses research showing that there is a strong one-for-one relationship between overall growth and average income growth in the poorest quintiles. Overall growth is thus still important.

The Editors, 30 June 2011

This CEPR/World Bank volume seeks to facilitate, and in the process develop methodologies for, a rigorous impact evaluation of trade-related interventions.

Daniel Bradlow, 06 September 2011

Many economists have called on the IMF to reform, particularly in light of the shifting centre of gravity in the global economy towards emerging markets. This column argues that global financial governance, which includes the role of the IMF, should be based on five principles: A holistic vision of development, comprehensive coverage, respect for applicable international law, coordinated specialisation, and good administrative practice.

Andrea Presbitero, 19 November 2010

The global crisis and expansionary government reactions that followed revived the attention of policymakers and academics on the adverse effects of large public debt. This column examines the case of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. It argues that a focus on the consequences of external debt is outdated as the share of domestic debt in total public debt in increased from 11% to 37% from 1991 to 2008. A new framework to deal with total public debt is now required to take into account domestic interest payments.

Lisa Chauvet, Paul Collier, Marguerite Duponchel, 16 November 2010

The end of war is the beginning of a new set of challenges for aid workers. This column asks whether this is the best time to start aid projects. Examining project-level data from the World Bank, it finds that post-conflict aid is more effective, though this is not true for all projects and the advantage erodes over time.

Ataman Aksoy, Bernard Hoekman, 08 October 2010

The contributions in this latest book from CEPR and the World Bank review trends in international prices and trade patterns of key food commodities, and assess the incidence of food price changes in a number of developing countries using household level data on sources of incomes and consumption patterns.

Martin Ravallion, 26 March 2010

The World Bank’s estimate of China’s real GDP per capita was revised down by 40% in 2005. This column explains how economic growth impacted price structures in developing countries -- impacts that had not been factored into how old PPPs were updated prior to new price surveys. It argues that large revisions could be avoided by using better economic models for predicting PPPs.

The Editors, 03 July 2009

This new ebook summarizes the views of leading researchers and trade policy practitioners, who met at a CEPR-World Bank conference to assess the cross-border impact of policy responses to the crisis.

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