Between the first quarter of 2013 and the end of 2015, London property prices rose rapidly, the exchange rate appreciated, and the current account deficit widened. This column argues that the rise of the pound was in fact a financial bubble, riding on a property price-exchange rate carry trade.This unsustainable bubble was deflated by Brexit.
Ashoka Mody, 18 November 2016
Pınar Yeşin, 26 October 2016
The IMF invests significant resources in developing models to estimate equilibrium exchange rates. This column assesses the predictive power of one vintage of IMF exchange rate models during 2006–2011. The models performed exceptionally well at predicting exchange rate movements over the medium run, which is particularly remarkable given that the period covered the unanticipated Global Crisis and the assessments were not shared publicly at the time.
Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno , Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf, 30 June 2016
Determining ‘currency value’ is a century-old topic on which there is little consensus among economists. This column proposes a novel way of adjusting real exchange rates for key country-specific fundamentals to obtain better gauges of currency valuation levels. Adjusting for productivity, export quality, foreign assets, and output gaps is shown to isolate information related to currency risk premia across countries. This can serve as a more precise input into investment and policy decisions.
Carmen Reinhart, 09 July 2015
Contrary to the intent of the designers of what was to be an irreversible currency union, Greece may well exit the Eurozone. This column argues that default does not inevitably trigger the introduction of a new currency (or the re-activation of an old one). However, if ‘de-euroisation’ is the end game, then a forcible (or compulsory) currency conversion is likely to be a central part of that process, along with more broad-based capital controls.
Stephen Grenville, 26 November 2013
The views and theories on the impossible trinity are conflicting. This column discusses some of the theories and their potential drawbacks. It points out that the impossible trinity has policy relevance for advances economies because their currencies are often close substitutes, and exchange rates follow expectations. For emerging economies, however, the policies implied by the impossible trinity could not be sustained due to the instability of their financial markets.
Dario Fauceglia, Anirudh Shingal, Martin Wermelinger, 19 October 2012
Recent literature on the role of imported inputs in exchange-rate adjustments of exports implicitly assumes full exchange-rate pass-through into imported input prices, which is a rather strong assumption. This column uses intermediate input prices to investigate the effect of exchange-rate fluctuations in Switzerland. It suggests an appreciation of the currency leads to higher profit margins through the import channel and imported inputs act as a natural means for hedging exchange-rate risks.
Jorge Chan-Lau, Marco Espinosa-Vega, Kay Giesecke, Juan Solé, 02 May 2009
The current financial crisis has underscored the problem of institutions that are too connected to be allowed to fail. This column suggests new methodologies that could form the basis for policies and regulation to address the too-connected-to-fail problem.