Dalia Marin, 07 September 2017

Previous research has shown that China's entry into the WTO in 2001 has had a profound impact on jobs and wages of low-skilled workers in the US in sectors exposed to Chinese imports. The same is not true for Germany. This column argues this is because the import-side trade adjustment to low-cost competition had already happened before the rise of China, because the rise of Eastern Europe offered new export opportunities for German firms, and because China’s love for product quality found a perfect match in German products.

Hugo Erken, Philip Marey, Maartje Wijffelaars, 15 August 2017

Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has been an increasingly vocal proponent of protectionist measures. This column presents five reasons why he is unlikely to resort to full-blown protectionism: political motivations, WTO membership, the possibility of retaliation, the existence of global value chain integration and revenue streams, and the fact that automation rather than trade has caused most job losses in the US. If Trump does resort to protectionism, however, and other countries retaliate, US GDP could face cumulative losses of up to 4.5% over two years.

Mary Amiti, Mi Dai, Robert Feenstra, John Romalis, 28 June 2017

China has become the world’s largest exporter, with a rapid rise in its world trade share just after it joined the WTO in 2001. This column finds that China’s WTO entry reduced the US manufacturing price index by 7.6% between 2000 and 2006, with most of this effect arising from China reducing its own import tariffs. US consumers gained because they paid less for manufactured goods and because they had access to more varieties of goods.

Scott Baier, Yoto Yotov, Thomas Zylkin, 28 April 2017

There is a large empirical literature examining the effects of free trade agreements. However, most studies to date have focused on a common average effect across all agreements or have assumed that the effects are common across similar types of agreements. This column examines heterogeneity in the effects of free trade agreements. Along with across-agreement heterogeneity, substantial within-agreement heterogeneity is observed. The effects of a specific agreement can be starkly different for two trading partners.

Aksel Erbahar, Yuan Zi, 10 October 2016

With the US presidential debates, talk of trade protectionism is on the rise. This is worrisome for economists, who generally argue that protection hurts consumers by raising final good prices, particularly in a world with increasingly integrated global value chains. This column presents new evidence for ‘cascading protection’, showing that US protection of inputs has increased the probability of petitions for protection by their downstream users.

Gary Hufbauer, Euijin Jung, 29 September 2016

Donald Trump has consistently made headlines with unusual and potentially dangerous economic policy proposals, including threatening to pull out of the WTO, renegotiating trade agreements, and imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico and China. This column explores the legal and economic dimensions of these proposals. Old and modern legal statutes could allow a US president to implement such policies, and the repercussions for the US economy could be severely negative.

Ricardo Meléndez-Ortiz, 26 July 2016

Trade ministries, just as other parts of government, need to respond to calls from the public and from global leaders for action on major issues. This column argues that armed with potential policy options identified through the E15Initiative, the WTO is equipped to contribute to solutions in many areas. Purposeful efforts over the coming months and years could help to boost the WTO’s essential and valuable place in ensuring a responsive and inclusive furtherance of globalisation and trade and investment integration that delivers sustainable development outcomes for all.    

Emanuel Ornelas, 14 May 2016

For over half a century, one pillar of the world trading system has been the principle of ‘special and differential treatment’ (SDT) for developing countries. This column explores how SDT has impacted trade policy around the world. Although this strategy aims to help developing countries, in design and practice it seems to be biased against them. While there is no support for SDT as a growth-promoting strategy, there is a clear need for further research that explicitly tackles the empirical challenges that it presents. 

Shujiro Urata, 16 February 2016

A series of mega-regional free trade agreements are currently being negotiated. This column argues that Japan is in a unique position to be able to negotiate with due regard for consistency among these agreements. It should thus seek to bring negotiations to a successful end and to expand and integrate the mega-regional FTAs. This will help rebuild the world trade regime so as to pave the way for achieving economic growth for the entire world.

Bernard Hoekman, Petros Mavroidis, 03 February 2016

The 2015 Nairobi WTO Ministerial unshackled governments from the deadlocked Doha Development Agenda and opened the door for new issues and new approaches. The Ministerial Declaration calls on new initiatives to be agreed by consensus. This column argues that WTO procedures permit ‘clubs’ of countries to agree on additional policy disciplines if the benefits extend on a non-discriminatory basis to all WTO members. Consensus is not needed for such clubs. 

Tsuyoshi Kawase, 10 January 2016

An agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership has finally been reached, after many twists and turns. This column examines the new set of rules comprising the agreement, and asks whether the TPP is, as claimed, a 21st century agreement or just an expanded version of a US-style FTA. While the TPP is undoubtedly a highly ambitious agreement that includes areas unaddressed by WTO disciplines, its success rests ultimately on the dispute settlement procedures.

Gary Hufbauer, 21 December 2015

The WTO members struck a deal in Nairobi at their Ministerial Conference that many have found hard to understand.  Leading up to the conference, there was widespread agreement that the WTO’s multilateral negotiations – known as the Doha Development Agenda – should be finished or finished off, as they had dragged on too long already (since 2001).  This column, by one of the world’s most seasoned trade policy experts, argues that the Nairobi Declaration finished off Doha for good, but it also finished several important elements of the original agenda.  Both developed and developing nations won important gains. 

Chad Bown, Douglas Irwin, 19 December 2015

Accurately establishing the GATT’s starting point is important for assessments of its contributions to the post-war trading system, on which much of contemporary trade policy continues to be based. However, a frequently cited statistic is that average tariffs immediately prior to the first GATT negotiations in Geneva in 1947 were at or above 40%.  This column largely debunks the 40% myth and suggests that average tariffs in 1947 were around 22%. 

Kent Jones, 30 November 2015

WTO members have somehow found it extremely difficult, in the 21st century, to reach a comprehensive multilateral agreement to expand mutual gains from trade. This column argues that success in expanding global trade will depend on major trading countries’ willingness to seek new institutional paths to multilateral agreements, through new negotiating modalities, openness to the expansion of regional agreements to new members, and in establishing reciprocity expectations for members according to their development status.  

Emilie Anér, Anna Graneli, Magnus Lodefalk, 14 October 2015

A large body of research has established a positive link between immigrants and bilateral trade. However, the temporary movement of people across borders has received less attention. This column uses Swedish data to analyse the impact of temporary cross-border movement on trade. Recently arrived migrants are found to reduce the negative impact of distance on foreign trade, by assisting firms to overcome informal and informational barriers to trade with their origin country. Facilitating movement of people across borders can be a highly useful tool for engaging in and benefitting from specialised and internationalised production networks.

Vincent Anesi, Giovanni Facchini, 08 August 2015

In international trade disputes, coercion is often used against governments whose trade practices are deemed unfair. This column presents a theoretical model that offers a new rationale for the greater effectiveness of multilateral compared to unilateral coercion, and hence provides a new argument in favour of commitment to international organisations.

Ralph Ossa, 11 June 2015

The WTO has so far failed to deliver any significant multilateral trade liberalisation. However, this column argues that concluding from this that the WTO is a failure would clearly be premature. Its punchline is that the WTO’s success at preventing trade wars far outweighs its failure to promote trade talks. Overall, the WTO is therefore much more successful than the ailing Doha Round suggests.

Ryuhei Wakasugi, 02 June 2015

The Chinese government significantly restructured and modernised its economy to gain WTO accession in December 2001. This column examines how WTO entry affected different types of firms. It finds that both private and State-owned firms became more productive after WTO entry yet these productivity gains did not translate into a higher propensity to export for State-owned enterprises.

Simon Evenett, Alejandro Jara, 09 December 2014

The WTO’s dispute settlement procedure was set up to help governments challenge policies that contravene WTO agreements. This column argues that two recent cases show that cases can be settled without resolving the problem and sometimes at the expense of other trading partners. This is an abuse of the system and a step backwards for the world trading system.

Jayant Menon, 10 November 2014

With WTO trade talks on the brink of failure (again), global trade governance is being decided elsewhere. This column argues that China and the US are pushing competing visions for free trade in Asia-Pacific. The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, could be challenged by a China-led ‘Beijing Road Map’ that may be announced at this week’s APEC summit. Neither vision is an end-game but merely one more stroke on an ugly picture of trade agreements characterised by an unsustainable amount of disorder and incoherence.

Pages

Events