Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Mauricio Ulate, 24 August 2017

Estimates of potential output around the world have been systematically revised downward since the Great Recession. This column argues that the methods used to create these estimates do not distinguish between transitory and permanent shocks, or demand and supply shocks. Taking these differences into account suggests US output is almost 10 percentage points below potential output. This has important immediate implications for policymakers, and raises questions for those who estimate potential output.

Dale Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, Jon Samuels, 01 November 2016

There has been speculation that the low employment rates for younger and less-educated workers in the US reflect a ‘new normal’. This column uses detailed new US data to project output, productivity, and employment rates over the next decade. The results indicate that US economic growth will continue to recover from the Great Recession through the resumption of growth in productivity and labour input. The recovery of employment rates for less-educated and younger workers will make an important contribution to future economic growth.

Laurence Ball, 01 July 2014

Whereas textbook macroeconomic theory suggests that output should return to potential after a recession, there is mounting evidence that deep recessions have highly persistent effects on output. This column reports estimates of the long-term damage caused by the Great Recession. In most countries in the sample, the loss of potential output – 8.4% on average – has been almost as large as the loss of actual output. In the countries hit hardest by the recession, the growth rate of potential output is much lower today than it was before 2008.

Declan Costello, Gert Koopman, Kieran Mc Morrow , Gilles Mourre, István Székely, Alexandr Hobza, 15 July 2009

The crisis may reduce the EU’s potential output by 5% of GDP or more. This column warns that the crisis may permanently reduce the EU’s supply-side capacity unless policymakers respond with reforms. It outlines measures to address the crisis and address long-run concerns about demographic shifts, public finances, and climate change.

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