Donald Trump has consistently made headlines with unusual and potentially dangerous economic policy proposals, including threatening to pull out of the WTO, renegotiating trade agreements, and imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico and China. This column explores the legal and economic dimensions of these proposals. Old and modern legal statutes could allow a US president to implement such policies, and the repercussions for the US economy could be severely negative.
Gary Hufbauer, Euijin Jung, 29 September 2016
Chad Bown, Meredith Crowley, 05 June 2016
Free trade is under fire in nations across the world. This column surveys evidence on the importance of trade barriers. There is substantial variation in applied trade policy across countries, industries, and their trading partners, both cross-sectionally and over time. The variation found in these newly available and increasingly detailed databases offer researchers the opportunity to analyse and better understand firm-level trade, aggregate trade, and the shock to the world economy precipitated by China’s phenomenal export growth.
Chad Bown, Douglas Irwin, 19 December 2015
Accurately establishing the GATT’s starting point is important for assessments of its contributions to the post-war trading system, on which much of contemporary trade policy continues to be based. However, a frequently cited statistic is that average tariffs immediately prior to the first GATT negotiations in Geneva in 1947 were at or above 40%. This column largely debunks the 40% myth and suggests that average tariffs in 1947 were around 22%.
Kozo Kiyota, Tetsuji Okazaki, 06 January 2014
The presumed success of Japanese post-war industrial policy has been used to advocate similar policies in other countries. Key to such arguments then is the empirical demonstration of the policies’ effects. This column presents research making use of a novel dataset that allows controlling for industry heterogeneity across many disaggregated industries. The effects of the quota removal on productivity were significantly positive, while the effects of tariffs on labour productivity were insignificant.
Lawrence Edwards, Robert Lawrence, 20 November 2013
Preferential import policies that allow developing markets to export to advanced economies are intended to dynamically promote development rather than just provide basic gains from trade. This column argues that the Africa Growth and Opportunities Act achieves the latter but not the former, distorting incentives along the value-added chain. While beneficial, preferential trade deals are not a panacea and are certainly not a replacement for pro-development policies.
Matthias Helble, Ganeshan Wignaraja, 13 November 2013
Intensifying negotiations leading to the December WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali have renewed optimism for concluding the beleaguered Doha Round and boosting Asia’s trade. Agreement in Bali on tariff-quota administration, trade facilitation, and food security would improve the prospects for a Doha deal and WTO credibility. Failure at Bali, however, would spur the rise of mega-regional trade agreements – to the detriment of countries outside these agreements.
Hylke Vandenbussche, Jozef Konings, 30 January 2013
The rise of international production sharing – ‘global value chains’ – has transformed international commerce and pushed economists into new territory. This column argues that there is evidence to suggest that old-fashioned protection can have an unexpected negative effect on firms that are part of a global value chain. In an increasingly globalised world, exporters’ success seems to positively depend on the free entry of imports rather than the other way round.
Vera Thorstensen, Lucas Ferraz, Emerson Marçal, 04 December 2011
Persistent exchange-rate misalignments have created trade frictions worldwide. This column argues that the WTO should adopt trade rules that allow nations to neutralise the effects of exchange-rate misalignments. Otherwise, the WTO might become a diplomatic-juridical fiction.
Kishore Gawande, Bernard Hoekman, Yue Cui, 10 November 2011
The Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09 did not give rise to rampant protectionism. This column examines the determinants of the observed pattern of trade-policy responses to the 2008 crisis, using data for seven large emerging markets that have a history of active use of trade policy. Vertical specialisation is found to be the most powerful economic factor determining trade-policy responses.
Pushan Dutt, Daniel Traça, 25 June 2009
Would reducing corruption increase trade? While corrupt customs officials extorting bribes from exporters may impede trade, those who take bribes to circumvent formal trade barriers may help it. This column estimates that when tariffs exceed 25%, the pro-trade effects of corruption may dominate.
David Laborde, Antoine Bouët, 14 May 2009
The current financial crisis has fostered a demand for protectionism and put the Doha Round at the back of the agenda. This column argues that a failed Doha Development Agenda would send the wrong signal in terms of global governance and could lead to an unravelling of the past 15 years of trade liberalisation.
Richard Newfarmer, Elisa Gamberoni, 04 March 2009
Trade protection is on the rise around the world and risks pushing the economy into prolonged contraction. Officials have proposed more than 60 new trade restrictions since the beginning of the financial crisis. While a serious outbreak of protectionism has yet to occur, vigilance and leadership are required.
Natalie Chen, Dennis Novy, 27 January 2009
This column assesses trade costs for manufacturing industries in the EU. It demonstrates that, although tariffs on trade within the EU were abolished decades ago, significant barriers remain, and countries continue to integrate. Today, the most substantial policy-induced costs are technical barriers to trade, such as packaging and labelling requirements.
Hylke Vandenbussche, Maurizio Zanardi, 08 February 2008
Political divisions among EU member states seem to have derailed the reform process envisaged by Mr Mandelson, the EU Trade Commissioner, for the most important of the EU’s trade defence instruments – antidumping. Here is a discussion of antidumping and what a minimal proposal for reforms should include.
Simon Evenett, 15 December 2007
If the US and EU continue down the path of confronting China directly, they will face a choice between piecemeal trade actions that highlights the divergence between their words and deeds, or the imposition of a blatantly WTO-illegal restriction on Chinese exports that would ruin their reputations as good WTO members.
Hiau Looi Kee, Alessandro Nicita, Marcelo Olarreaga, 18 July 2007
Trade openness matters, so the measurement of trade restrictiveness matters. Commonly used measures, however, are deeply flawed. New research, using theory-based measures, has generated two new global databases on the restrictiveness of trade policy at the most disaggregated level.