Low for how long? Estimating the ECB’s “Extended Period of Time”

Tilman Bletzinger, Volker Wieland 05 September 2013

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The ECB Governing Council has given hints that it will keep rates low for long (see its May and June statements). On 4 July 2013, the Council went further embracing ‘forward guidance’ (Praet 2013, Woodford 2013).1

“The Governing Council expects the ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”

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Topics:  Monetary policy

Tags:  ECB, forecast, monetary rule

Is the ECB doing QE?

Charles Wyplosz 12 September 2014

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The 4 September announcement by Chairman Mario Draghi has been greeted with enthusiasm by the markets and the media. It has been long awaited, and many believe that the ECB has finally delivered. This is not sure. The ECB intends to buy large amounts of securities backed by bank lending to households (mortgages) and to firms.

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Topics:  Exchange rates Financial markets Monetary policy

Tags:  quantitative easing, QE, monetary policy, unconventional monetary policy, ECB, securitisation, bank lending, Europe, eurozone, Subprime, stress tests, deleveraging, recapitalisation, depreciation, exchange rates, euro, central banking

To exit the Great Recession, central banks must adapt their policies and models

Marcus Miller, Lei Zhang 10 September 2014

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“Practical men…are usually the slaves…[of] some academic scribbler of a few years back” – John Maynard Keynes.

For monetary policy to be most effective, Michael Woodford emphasised the crucial importance of managing expectations. For this purpose, he advocated that central banks adopt explicit rules for setting interest rates to check inflation and recession, and went on to note that:

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  Taylor rule, forward guidance, great moderation, global crisis, Great Recession, quantitative easing, DSGE models, expectations, tapering, US, UK, Europe, eurozone, ECB, Bank of England, central banking, IMF, unconventional monetary policy

How to jumpstart the Eurozone economy

Francesco Giavazzi, Guido Tabellini 21 August 2014

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The mantra is that once again it is up to the ECB to save the Eurozone. Quantitative easing is the last policy tool available to jumpstart the Eurozone economy. The longer the ECB waits before starting to buy government bonds, the further away will the recovery be. This analysis, however, overestimates the power of monetary policy.

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  ECB, monetary policy, fiscal policy, quantitative easing, public debt, aggregate demand, Eurozone economy, stagnation

Revisiting the pain in Spain

Paul De Grauwe 07 July 2014

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The different macroeconomic adjustment dynamics in Spain – a member of a monetary union – and the UK – a stand-alone country – is stark. Paul Krugman popularised this contrast in his New York Times blog with the title “The Pain in Spain” (Krugman 2009, 2011), and commented on my own analysis in De Grauwe (2011).

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Topics:  Europe's nations and regions Global crisis Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  ECB, monetary policy, euro, EMU, Spain, monetary union, fiscal policy, UK, government debt, austerity, EZ crisis, Outright Monetary Transactions, currency depreciation

The euro crisis: Muddling through, or on the way to a more perfect euro union?

Joshua Aizenman 03 July 2014

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The short history of the Eurozone has been remarkable and unprecedented – the euro project has moved from the planning board to a vibrant currency within less than ten years. Otmar Issing’s optimistic speech in 2006 reflects well the buoyant assessment of the first decade of the euro – an unprecedented formation of a new currency without a state.1 Observers viewed the rapid acceptance of the euro as a viable currency and the deeper financial integration of the Eurozone and the EU countries as stepping stones toward a stable and prosperous Europe.

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Topics:  Institutions and economics International finance Monetary policy

Tags:  Germany, ECB, eurozone, inflation targeting, euro, institutions, Eurozone crisis, GIIPS

Saving the euro: self-fulfilling crisis and the ‘Draghi put’

Marcus Miller, Lei Zhang 26 June 2014

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In surveying eight centuries of financial folly, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) observed that:

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Topics:  International finance Monetary policy

Tags:  ECB, eurozone, sovereign debt, financial crises, sovereign debt crisis, Outright Monetary Transactions, European sovereign debt crisis, self-fulfilling crises

Central bank transparency and committee deliberation

Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon, Andrea Prat 20 June 2014

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Introduction

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Topics:  Monetary policy

Tags:  ECB, computational linguistics, central bank transparency, FOMC

Will voters turn out in the 2014 European Parliamentary elections?

Owen McDougall, Ashoka Mody 17 May 2014

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The extent of voter turnout in the 2014 European Parliamentary (EP) election is widely viewed as a critical test for European democracy. Turnout in the EP elections has steadily declined over three decades, from 62% in the first election in 1979 to 43% in the 2009 election (EP Liaison Office undated). There is great concern that the legitimacy of the EU is at stake should there be a further slide in voter turnout.

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Topics:  EU institutions Politics and economics

Tags:  elections, ECB, democracy, EU, trust, voting, European parliament, turnout

ECB: An appropriate monetary policy

Mickey Levy 16 May 2014

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Europe’s modest economic recovery and uncomfortably low inflation put the ECB in a bind. Although economic conditions are improving gradually (European Commission 2014), concerns about the potentially negative impacts of deflation persist (Armstrong et al. 2014). The ECB’s top near-term priorities are to avoid deflation (and apparently even sustained low inflation) and extend the economic recovery.

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Topics:  Monetary policy

Tags:  ECB, eurozone, monetary policy, quantitative easing, bank lending

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