Recent history of long-run inflation expectations suggests reasonably well-anchored expectations in both regions, however no studies to date have compared the recent evolution and dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections in the United States to those in the EU. The authors of CEPR DP6536 use daily evidence from financial markets and surveys, which reveal a substantially greater degree of forecaster disagreement about long-run inflation outcomes in the United States than in the euro area.
Meredith Beechey, Benjamin Johannsen, Andrew Levin, 24 October 2007
Stephen Cecchetti, 15 August 2007
A revised and updated version of the 13 August column on the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets.
Stephen Cecchetti, 13 August 2007
Here are the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets.
Charles Wyplosz, 21 July 2007
The ECB’s opacity, lack of open debate and refusal to decide by voting bear at least some responsibility in the declining support for the euro. This makes the ECB an easy target for politicians looking for scapegoats. For the good of the Euro-area citizens, the ECB ought to change its ways.
Francesco Giavazzi, 19 June 2007
Sarkozy repeatedly criticised the European Central Bank during the campaign; his intuition was correct but his aim was off. By forcing the ECB to be more transparent and accountable, he would contribute to improving monetary policy in Europe.
Michael Woodford, 26 March 2007
Should money supply play a role in monetary policy-making? The author of CEPR DP6211 reviews the pros and cons and finds that there are no compelling reasons to assign a prominent role to monetary aggregates in monetary policy-making. The goals of the ECB's two-pillar strategy - which includes a role for money - are praiseworthy; the author believes that ECB justifications for looking at monetary aggregates provide little support for this approach.
Olivier Blanchard, Francesco Giavazzi, 01 December 2005
Written in December 2005: No central bank, not even the ECB can focus exclusively on inflation. Adopting policy that allows it to consider economic activity would require the ECB to articulate its rationale with great care, but its British and American counterparts show how. Credibility does not require dogmatism, but rather clarity of purpose.