David Miles, 17 May 2017

The financial sector is a major contributor to UK’s GDP, but only a fraction comes from exports to the EU. In this video, David Miles discusses to what extent the financial sector depends on the access to the European Single Market. This video was recorded at the LSE Growth Commission in December 2016.

Paul Johnson, 15 May 2017

Projections about the impact of Brexit on the British economy haven’t changed since last June. In this video, Paul Johnson discusses three challenges for economists. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Jagjit Chadha, 12 May 2017

Economists need to build better relationships with the public. In this video, Jagjit Chadha discusses the importance for economists to focus on the whole distribution, rather than the median person. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen, Tristan Kohl, 11 May 2017

New trade deals for the UK will be an important part of the Brexit negotiations, not only with the EU but also with the rest of the world. This column argues, however, that the UK has no trade-enhancing alternative to an agreement with the EU that essentially mimics its current situation as an EU member. A gravity model predicts that the negative impact of Brexit would be only marginally offset by a bilateral trade agreement with the US, and even in the case of trade agreements with all non-EU countries, the UK’s value-added exports would still fall by more than 6%.  

Simon Wren-Lewis, 10 May 2017

There are lots of ways in which the UK could leave the EU. In this video, Simon Wren-Lewis discusses the importance of representing economists’ views, especially when there is consensus. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Diane Coyle, 08 May 2017

The British economy hasn’t suffered the big shock from Brexit yet. In this video, Diane Coyle argues that attention needs to be paid to the effects of Brexit across regions and sectors. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Charles Bean, 03 May 2017

Financial services account for 10% of the UK’s GDP. In this video, Charles Bean discusses possible options to keep the access to the EU after Brexit. This video was recorded at the LSE Growth Commission in December 2016.

Thiemo Fetzer, 26 April 2017

Contributions to the EU budget and migration were the two main issues of the referendum. In this video, Thiemo Fetzer discusses how much these issues explain the voting pattern across the UK. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference in April 2017.

Ken Mayhew, 25 April 2017

Higher education authorities are concerned about the implications of Brexit for the income and international standing of UK universities – the possible reduction in the numbers of EU students and staff and the loss of EU research funding. This column explores these threats and argues that there may be real cause for concern among lower ranking institutions faced by the perfect storm of Brexit, a general toughening of immigration rules, and greater competition promised in the UK government’s recent White Paper on higher education. 

Jim Tomlinson, 21 April 2017

Many commentators have portrayed Britain’s referendum decision to leave the EU as being motivated by a popular rejection of globalisation. This column argues that in seeking to understand the economic basis of the Brexit vote, we should concentrate not on globalisation but on the long-term impact of de-industrialisation, which has left a legacy of a much more polarised service sector labour market, with large numbers of people condemned to poorly paid and insecure jobs.

Nicholas Crafts, 18 April 2017

Depending on the outcome of negotiations, Brexit potentially changes the rules that govern the use of industrial policy. The UK government has in mind risky policy reforms that appear to be incompatible with EU rules on state aid. This column argues that this is an unheralded downside of a hard Brexit. 

, 07 April 2017

The UK started the process of leaving the EU on March 29 2017. Economists from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) based at the University of Sussex looked at the impact of trade deals on different sectors of the economy, and on different regions of the UK.

Ian Wooton, 29 March 2017

Given that a soft Brexit is no longer an option, what are the implications for Scotland? In this video, Ian Wooton discusses possible scenarios for Scotland. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Richard Baldwin, Paul Collier, Anthony Venables, 29 March 2017

Regardless of what one may think of the decision, the British people have voted to leave the EU – a result that throws up historic challenges as well as historic opportunities. This column introduces CEPR's latest Policy Insight, which suggests that Brexit should be viewed as an important opportunity for fresh thinking.

Nauro Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli, 10 March 2017

After 1945, the economies of the six founding members of the European Union grew faster than the UK's economy. Margaret Thatcher’s reforms in the mid-1980s have been credited with reversing this relative decline. This column argues that there is little empirical support for this explanation, and that a more credible turning point was around 1970 when the UK finally began the process of joining the European Economic Community. 

Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig, 20 February 2017

The revival of nationalism in western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to show that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese exports. Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected industries or not. 

Alen Mulabdic, Alberto Osnago, Michele Ruta, 23 January 2017

The British government and the EU face a difficult negotiation over the terms of Brexit. This column uses new data on the content of trade agreements to assess the trade impact of Brexit, identifying a tradeoff between the depth of the post-Brexit agreement and the intensity of future UK-EU trade. A ‘harder’ Brexit may have a stronger negative impact on the UK’s services trade and supply chain integration, which have relied more on the depth of the EU. This tradeoff will likely delimit future policy choices. 

Ian Tomb, Kamakshya Trivedi, 06 January 2017

It has become consensus to argue that we have approached ‘peak trade’ or the ‘end of globalisation’: that the past five years of stagnant global trade growth are not temporary, but instead reflect persistent forces that are likely to drive a continued stagnation in global trade over the long run. Though this view preceded the Brexit referendum, this column argues that it has now been amplified by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and the prospect that, potentially, US President-elect Trump and other leaders across developed markets will implement protectionist trade policies. The authors consider the arguments for ‘peak trade’, and conclude that, though downside risks to the trade outlook are prominent, there is little evidence – yet – that the current stagnation in global trade is predestined to extend far into the future.

Jonathan Portes, Giuseppe Forte, 05 January 2017

The various projections of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy that were produced during the referendum campaign omitted the economic impact of changes in migration to the UK. This column presents plausible scenarios for future migration flows and estimates of the likely impacts. The potential negative impact of Brexit-induced reductions in openness to migration on the UK economy could well equal that resulting from Brexit-induced reductions in trade.

Fredrik Andersson, Lars Jonung, 15 December 2016

A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, argues that Sweden should work for a happy divorce that lays the foundation for a remarriage, or 'Brentry'. As part of this, the authors advocate a temporary escape clause concerning the free movement of labour, which any member state can invoke when and only when they can prove that EU migration is directly harming a significant part of domestic society. 

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