Hiau Looi Kee, Alessandro Nicita, 22 October 2017

More than a year has passed since the UK voted for Brexit. This column analyses the short-term fallout of trade in goods due to potential changes in trade policies. It argues that if the UK fails to secure a new trade deal with the EU and must face tariffs with no preferences, total UK's exports to the EU would drop by at most 2%. The impact is small because the EU's import demand for UK exports is fairly inelastic, especially for products that that may face higher tariffs.

Thomas Sampson, 19 October 2017

While we can estimate the economic impact of Brexit, we do not yet understand what made people vote for it. This column argues that political pro-Brexit rhetoric conflates two distinct hypotheses that have different policy implications. If voters wanted to reclaim sovereignty from the EU, they may view a negative economic impact as a price worth paying. But, if 'left-behind' voters blamed the EU for their economic and social problems, post-Brexit policy should focus on the underlying causes of discontent.

Federica Liberini, Andrew Oswald, Eugenio Proto, Michela Redoano, 17 October 2017

There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness contributed to the vote to leave the EU, but this was driven by feelings about individual financial situations rather than a general dissatisfaction with life. Brexit does not appear to have been caused by the old – only those under the age of 25 were substantially pro-Remain.  

Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen, 05 October 2017

UK economic performance has been poor since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, but has not been the catastrophe that many predicted. This column draws four results from the evidence gathered in the new Decision Maker Panel survey of around 2,500 businesses in the UK. While most firms expect a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and costs, only larger firms and those that are more exposed to international markets are likely to think that they might move part of their business abroad.

Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Eva Micheler, 31 May 2017

Brexit is likely to cause considerable disruption for financial markets. Some worry that it may also increase systemic risk. This column revisits the debate and argues that an increase in systemic risk is unlikely. While legal ‘plumbing’ and institutional and regulatory equivalence are of concern, systemic risk is more likely to fall due to increased financial fragmentation and caution by market participants in the face of uncertainty. 

Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen, 24 May 2017

John Van Reenen, 24 May 2017

David Miles, 17 May 2017

The financial sector is a major contributor to UK’s GDP, but only a fraction comes from exports to the EU. In this video, David Miles discusses to what extent the financial sector depends on the access to the European Single Market. This video was recorded at the LSE Growth Commission in December 2016.

Paul Johnson, 15 May 2017

Projections about the impact of Brexit on the British economy haven’t changed since last June. In this video, Paul Johnson discusses three challenges for economists. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Jagjit Chadha, 12 May 2017

Economists need to build better relationships with the public. In this video, Jagjit Chadha discusses the importance for economists to focus on the whole distribution, rather than the median person. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen, Tristan Kohl, 11 May 2017

New trade deals for the UK will be an important part of the Brexit negotiations, not only with the EU but also with the rest of the world. This column argues, however, that the UK has no trade-enhancing alternative to an agreement with the EU that essentially mimics its current situation as an EU member. A gravity model predicts that the negative impact of Brexit would be only marginally offset by a bilateral trade agreement with the US, and even in the case of trade agreements with all non-EU countries, the UK’s value-added exports would still fall by more than 6%.  

Simon Wren-Lewis, 10 May 2017

There are lots of ways in which the UK could leave the EU. In this video, Simon Wren-Lewis discusses the importance of representing economists’ views, especially when there is consensus. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Diane Coyle, 08 May 2017

The British economy hasn’t suffered the big shock from Brexit yet. In this video, Diane Coyle argues that attention needs to be paid to the effects of Brexit across regions and sectors. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Charles Bean, 03 May 2017

Financial services account for 10% of the UK’s GDP. In this video, Charles Bean discusses possible options to keep the access to the EU after Brexit. This video was recorded at the LSE Growth Commission in December 2016.

Thiemo Fetzer, 26 April 2017

Contributions to the EU budget and migration were the two main issues of the referendum. In this video, Thiemo Fetzer discusses how much these issues explain the voting pattern across the UK. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference in April 2017.

Ken Mayhew, 25 April 2017

Higher education authorities are concerned about the implications of Brexit for the income and international standing of UK universities – the possible reduction in the numbers of EU students and staff and the loss of EU research funding. This column explores these threats and argues that there may be real cause for concern among lower ranking institutions faced by the perfect storm of Brexit, a general toughening of immigration rules, and greater competition promised in the UK government’s recent White Paper on higher education. 

Jim Tomlinson, 21 April 2017

Many commentators have portrayed Britain’s referendum decision to leave the EU as being motivated by a popular rejection of globalisation. This column argues that in seeking to understand the economic basis of the Brexit vote, we should concentrate not on globalisation but on the long-term impact of de-industrialisation, which has left a legacy of a much more polarised service sector labour market, with large numbers of people condemned to poorly paid and insecure jobs.

Nicholas Crafts, 18 April 2017

Depending on the outcome of negotiations, Brexit potentially changes the rules that govern the use of industrial policy. The UK government has in mind risky policy reforms that appear to be incompatible with EU rules on state aid. This column argues that this is an unheralded downside of a hard Brexit. 

, 07 April 2017

The UK started the process of leaving the EU on March 29 2017. Economists from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) based at the University of Sussex looked at the impact of trade deals on different sectors of the economy, and on different regions of the UK.

Ian Wooton, 29 March 2017

Given that a soft Brexit is no longer an option, what are the implications for Scotland? In this video, Ian Wooton discusses possible scenarios for Scotland. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

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