Many commentators have portrayed Britain’s referendum decision to leave the EU as being motivated by a popular rejection of globalisation. This column argues that in seeking to understand the economic basis of the Brexit vote, we should concentrate not on globalisation but on the long-term impact of de-industrialisation, which has left a legacy of a much more polarised service sector labour market, with large numbers of people condemned to poorly paid and insecure jobs.
Jim Tomlinson, 21 April 2017
Nicholas Crafts, 18 April 2017
Depending on the outcome of negotiations, Brexit potentially changes the rules that govern the use of industrial policy. The UK government has in mind risky policy reforms that appear to be incompatible with EU rules on state aid. This column argues that this is an unheralded downside of a hard Brexit.
, 07 April 2017
The UK started the process of leaving the EU on March 29 2017. Economists from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) based at the University of Sussex looked at the impact of trade deals on different sectors of the economy, and on different regions of the UK.
Ian Wooton, 29 March 2017
Given that a soft Brexit is no longer an option, what are the implications for Scotland? In this video, Ian Wooton discusses possible scenarios for Scotland. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.
Richard Baldwin, Paul Collier, Anthony Venables, 29 March 2017
Regardless of what one may think of the decision, the British people have voted to leave the EU – a result that throws up historic challenges as well as historic opportunities. This column introduces CEPR's latest Policy Insight, which suggests that Brexit should be viewed as an important opportunity for fresh thinking.
Nauro Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli, 10 March 2017
After 1945, the economies of the six founding members of the European Union grew faster than the UK's economy. Margaret Thatcher’s reforms in the mid-1980s have been credited with reversing this relative decline. This column argues that there is little empirical support for this explanation, and that a more credible turning point was around 1970 when the UK finally began the process of joining the European Economic Community.
Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig, 20 February 2017
The revival of nationalism in western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to show that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese exports. Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected industries or not.
Alen Mulabdic, Alberto Osnago, Michele Ruta, 23 January 2017
The British government and the EU face a difficult negotiation over the terms of Brexit. This column uses new data on the content of trade agreements to assess the trade impact of Brexit, identifying a tradeoff between the depth of the post-Brexit agreement and the intensity of future UK-EU trade. A ‘harder’ Brexit may have a stronger negative impact on the UK’s services trade and supply chain integration, which have relied more on the depth of the EU. This tradeoff will likely delimit future policy choices.
Ian Tomb, Kamakshya Trivedi, 06 January 2017
It has become consensus to argue that we have approached ‘peak trade’ or the ‘end of globalisation’: that the past five years of stagnant global trade growth are not temporary, but instead reflect persistent forces that are likely to drive a continued stagnation in global trade over the long run. Though this view preceded the Brexit referendum, this column argues that it has now been amplified by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and the prospect that, potentially, US President-elect Trump and other leaders across developed markets will implement protectionist trade policies. The authors consider the arguments for ‘peak trade’, and conclude that, though downside risks to the trade outlook are prominent, there is little evidence – yet – that the current stagnation in global trade is predestined to extend far into the future.
Jonathan Portes, Giuseppe Forte, 05 January 2017
The various projections of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy that were produced during the referendum campaign omitted the economic impact of changes in migration to the UK. This column presents plausible scenarios for future migration flows and estimates of the likely impacts. The potential negative impact of Brexit-induced reductions in openness to migration on the UK economy could well equal that resulting from Brexit-induced reductions in trade.
Fredrik Andersson, Lars Jonung, 15 December 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, argues that Sweden should work for a happy divorce that lays the foundation for a remarriage, or 'Brentry'. As part of this, the authors advocate a temporary escape clause concerning the free movement of labour, which any member state can invoke when and only when they can prove that EU migration is directly harming a significant part of domestic society.
Laurence Boone, Ano Kuhanathan, 12 December 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, suggests that France is likely to seek to include the UK in a comprehensive free trade zone to maintain easy access to the UK markets, but with a view to safeguarding its own competitiveness.
Francesco Furlanetto, Ørjan Robstad, 10 December 2016
The macroeconomic effects of immigration are a hot topic, particularly during elections. Using immigration records from Norway, this column argues that an increase in immigration lowers unemployment (even for native workers) and has no negative effects on public finances. However, it identifies a negative effect on productivity that may be a worry for long-term growth.
Luis Garicano, 07 December 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the eBook, examines Spain's negotiating position, including the possible stumbling block of Gibraltar.
Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 06 December 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the eBook, focuses on Germany and argues that as the country's prosperity is inseparable from the success of Europe and the Eurozone, Germany's priority has to be to preserve both and to avoid corrosive, possibly divisive or even destructive compromises with a country that wants to leave.
Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig, 23 November 2016
The vote for Brexit was a watershed moment in European politics. This column investigates the causal drivers of differences in support for the Leave campaign across UK regions. Globalisation in the form of the ‘Chinese import shock’ is found to be a key driver of regional support for Brexit. The results suggest that policies are needed that help to redistribute the benefits of globalisation across society.
Ashoka Mody, 18 November 2016
Between the first quarter of 2013 and the end of 2015, London property prices rose rapidly, the exchange rate appreciated, and the current account deficit widened. This column argues that the rise of the pound was in fact a financial bubble, riding on a property price-exchange rate carry trade.This unsustainable bubble was deflated by Brexit.
Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, 12 November 2016
Unlike technical progress in transport or communication technologies, regional trade agreements are political decisions that can be reversed, as Brexit and the campaign promises of President-elect Donald Trump to raise tariffs on imports from Mexico demonstrate. This column analyses the consequences for the car industry of these two examples of the dismantling of an RTA. Car production would fall significantly in the UK under Brexit and in Mexico under ‘Trumpit’ due to a combination of tariff-induced sales losses and increased plant costs.
Francesco Fasani, 31 October 2016
The migration debate is often harsh and polarised, oscillating from calls for more open borders to promises to build new fences, and contrasting the views of those who emphasise the advantages and benefits from migration flows with those who consider migrants to impose an unnecessary strain on hosting societies. This column introduces a new eBook that offers a brief summary of what economists have learnt about migration in several crucial areas of policymaking, and identifies most of the important questions that still remain to be answered.
Sascha O. Becker, Thiemo Fetzer, Dennis Novy, 31 October 2016
In the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the EU. The vote is widely seen as a watershed moment in British history and European integration. This column asks why some areas vote to leave the EU, and others voted to remain.