Willem Thorbecke, Atsuyuki Kato, 01 July 2017

Since 2007, there have been large changes in the Swiss franc. This column shows that exchange-rate appreciations do not affect the exports, profits, or stock returns of Swiss companies making sophisticated products. In contrast, rises in the franc decrease the exports, profits and stock returns of firms producing medium-high-technology goods. An economy’s production structure is important for weathering exchange-rate fluctuations.

Gita Gopinath, 31 May 2017

Exchange rates matter for international trade. In this video, Gita Gopinath discusses the importance of the dollar. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Angus Deaton, Bettina Aten, 15 July 2014

Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan D. Ostry, Mahvash S. Qureshi, 12 May 2017

There has been growing recognition that emerging markets may benefit from more proactive management of capital flows, and thus avoid crises when the flows recede. But do they do this in practice? By analysing policy responses in a sample of emerging markets, this column argues that central banks respond to capital inflows through various tools. Ironically, the most commonly prescribed instrument for coping with capital inflows – tighter fiscal policy – is the least-used tool in practice.

Lionel Fontagné, Philippe Martin, Gianluca Orefice, 07 April 2017

With Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, tariffs and exchange rates are back at the centre stage of policy debates. This column revisits the assumptions economists make when estimating how tariffs and exchange rates affect exporters’ performance. It argues that the elasticity of firm-level exports to firm-level export prices is an important factor that should be taken into account. Using French firm-level data, it finds that exporters react even more strongly to firm-level electricity cost shocks than to tariff or exchange rate shocks.

Willem Buiter, 22 March 2017

A border tax adjustment from origin-based taxation to destination-based taxation is under consideration for corporate profit tax in the US. This column investigates the implications of such an adjustment for the nominal exchange rate, assuming the real equilibrium of the economy is unchanged. While conventional wisdom is that the currency of the country implementing the adjustment will appreciate by a percentage equal to the VAT or corporate profit tax rate, a depreciation of the same magnitude is just as likely. 

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Bertrand Gruss, Nicolas Magud, Fabian Valencia, 13 March 2017

The rate at which consumer prices rise following a depreciation of the currency, known as the exchange rate pass-through, has been declining. The column uses a decomposition of exchange rate pass-through into the component that can be attributed to pricing of imported goods at the dock, and the second-round effects on domestically produced goods and services, to show that reductions in second-round effects are largely responsible for the decline in pass-through. Enhanced monetary policy credibility is strongly associated with this reduction. 

Kazunobu Hayakawa, HanSung Kim, Taiyo Yoshimi, 05 March 2017

Some exporters prefer to use most-favoured nation rates even when exporting to a fellow member of a free trade agreement. This column analyses the effect of exchange rates on the utilisation of free trade agreements, focusing on the ASEAN-Korea agreement. A depreciation of an (ASEAN) exporter’s currency against the (Korean) importer’s currency enhances utilisation rates of the trade agreement’s tariffs, with implications for the design of rules of origin. 

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek, 03 March 2017

Macroeconomic models have been criticised for their inability to forecast exchange rates better than the random walk model. This column argues that open-economy DGSE models are useful in forecasting the real exchange rate but not the nominal exchange rate, owing to their failure to capture adequately the international co-movement of prices. They correctly predict, however, that the bulk of the real exchange rate adjustment occurs through the nominal rate. The central role of the nominal rate in restoring price competitiveness in flexible exchange rate regimes can be exploited from a forecasting perspective. 

Massimiliano Marcellino, Angela Abbate, 04 February 2017

Exchange rates are important contributors to business cycle fluctuations in open economies. Forecasting exchange rates is not an easy task, however, perhaps due to the instability of their relationship with economic drivers. This column introduces a model that also allows for changing volatility when forecasting exchange rates. Modelling time variation in the cross-rate relationships, and in the volatilities of the shocks hitting the economic system, significantly improves forecasts.

Adrian Jäggi, Martin Schlegel, Attilio Zanetti, 18 January 2017

Identifying the exact triggers for safe-haven flows in not easy, nor is tracking the ways in which demand for safe havens materialises. This column uses an empirical analysis of movements of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen since 2000 to show that these safe-haven currencies reacted strongly to non-domestic macro surprises, especially during the Global Crisis, and that this is in addition to the expected reaction to general changes in the risk environment. Oddly, for European macro surprises, only German data influence safe-haven currencies.

Hiro Ito, Masahiro Kawai, 24 June 2016

China’s authorities have been promoting the renminbi as an international currency for international trade, investment, and finance. This column examines the experiences of the dollar, yen, and deutschmark from the 1970s to the 1990s. As long as China’s neighbouring economies keep using the dollar for international trade and financial activities, the rise of the renminbi as a trade invoicing currency may be as fast as the rise of China itself.

Stefan Gerlach, Edoardo Di Giamberardino, 10 June 2016

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership could have a significant effect on sterling. This column estimates the potential size of this effect by looking at the relationship between daily changes in the sterling exchange rate and bookmakers’ odds of Brexit. Movements of between 5% and 15% seem plausible.

Alberto Cavallo, Roberto Rigobon, 24 April 2016

Big Data is changing the world, even economics. This column describes MIT’s Billion Prices Project and discusses key lessons for both inflation measurement and some fundamental research questions in macro and international economics. Online prices can be used to construct daily price indexes in multiple countries and to help avoid measurement biases. 

Barthélémy Bonadio, Andreas Fischer, Philip Sauré, 21 April 2016

According to standard estimates, exchange rate shocks affect import prices only slowly. This column presents evidence that challenges this view. Focusing on the large, unanticipated change in the Swiss franc in 2015, it shows that a change in import prices materialised very quickly. Prices started to move on the second working day after the exchange rate shock, and the medium-run pass-through of roughly 50% was reached after six additional working days.

Kristin Forbes, Ida Hjortso, Tsvetelina Nenova, 12 February 2016

A major challenge for monetary policy is predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. This column explains why rules of thumb could be misleading and proposes a new approach that incorporates the source of exchange rate movements when evaluating how they pass through to import prices and inflation.

Jörg Decressin, Prakash Loungani, 02 December 2015

Internal devaluations have been suggested as a possible policy option for countries in a currency union facing large external deficits. These policy actions seek to restore competitiveness by replicating the outcomes of an external devaluation. This column examines wage moderation as a potential means of internal devaluation for EZ countries. If pursued by several countries, wage moderation can work if monetary policy is not constrained by the zero lower bound, or if supported by quantitative easing. Without sufficient monetary accommodation, it will not deliver much of a boost to output, and may hurt overall EZ output.

Javier Cravino, Andrei Levchenko, 23 November 2015

Large exchange rate swings remain a prominent and recurring feature of the world economy. This column uses household consumption patterns to examine the distributional impact of the devaluation of the peso during Mexico’s ‘Tequila Crisis’. Cost of living increases are found to be 1.25 to 1.6 times higher for the poor compared to the rich. In the interests of equity, exchange rate policy should take account of such distributional impacts.

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Exchange rates movements are again attracting a lot of attention as a focal point in the policy debate. Prolonged recession following the global financial crisis has pushed most advanced economies into liquidity traps where domestic monetary policy is severely limited. The exchange rate offers an alternative option for boosting aggregate demand in a liquidity trap. However, the exchange rate channel may have global repercussions through spillover effects on international goods and financial markets. Emerging market policymakers, in particular, have raised warnings about excessive exchange rate movements arising from advanced economy stimulus. A further risk arises from the exchange rate implications of US monetary policy `normalization’. This conference hopes to bring together new empirical and theoretical research on all aspects of exchange rates, their role in domestic macroeconomic policy as well as the global trade and financial system.

Gino Cenedese, Richard Payne, Lucio Sarno , Giorgio Valente, 17 July 2015

Various theories suggest that exchange rate fluctuations and stock returns are linked. In this column, the authors find little evidence of a relationship between the two. Thus, a simple trading strategy that invests in countries with the highest expected equity returns and shorts those with the lowest generates substantial risk-adjusted returns.

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