The shared supplier effect: How foreign firms benefit domestic firms
Hiau Looi Kee 21 November 2014
The conventional thinking about foreign direct investment is that it may create jobs but also take away market opportunities from domestic firms. This column suggests another spillover to consider. If foreign firms require higher quality inputs, domestic firms who share suppliers with foreign firms gain access to better local inputs. It then argues that this spillover effect can explain a third of the productivity gains within Bangladeshi firms during 1999-2003.
The conventional thinking about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a developing country, is often that while FDI may create jobs, it crowds out and take away market opportunities from domestic enterprises and make the domestic firms less efficient. These are the so-called negative spillovers of FDI and have been identified in Venezuela (Atkin and Harrison, 1999), the Czech Republic (Djankov and Hoekman, 2000) and Central and Eastern Europe (Konings, 2001). In a recent study (Kee, forthcoming), I find that there could be a positive spillover of FDI to consider, i.e.
FDI, spillovers, Bangladesh
Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets: Evidence from capital flows
Dennis Reinhardt, Cameron McLoughlin, Ludovic Gauvin 05 November 2014
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, policymakers and academics alike discussed how uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic policymaking has impacted domestic investment. At the same time, concerns regarding the spillover impact of monetary policy in advanced economies on emerging market economies featured strongly in the international policy debate. This column draws the two debates together, and examines how policy uncertainty in advanced economies has spilled over to emerging markets via portfolio capital flows. It finds remarkable differences in the spillover effects of EU vs. US policy uncertainty.
In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, advanced economies experienced heightened levels of uncertainty in macroeconomic policymaking. Against this backdrop, policymakers debated the domestic and global spillover implications of advanced-country policy uncertainty (e.g. IMF 2013). At the same time, the potential for monetary policy settings in advanced countries to spill over to emerging market economies (EMEs) via capital flows was hotly contested in both academic and policymaker circles (e.g. Fratzscher et al. 2013).
International finance Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy
capital flows, Capital inflows, emerging markets, policy uncertainty, spillovers, global crisis, monetary policy, macroeconomic policy, risk aversion, home bias
Wikipedia: The value of open content production
Aleksi Aaltonen, Stephan Seiler 31 October 2014
Many organisations are developing open platforms to create, store, and share knowledge. This column analyses editing data by Wikipedia users to show how content creation by individuals generates significant ‘spillover’ benefits, encouraging others to contribute to the collective process of knowledge production.
Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Wikipedia are among the world’s most popular websites – and all of them are based on user-generated content. While some platforms of this kind are primarily used to share individually produced content, others are based on a more direct interaction between users in the production of content.
Frontiers of economic research Productivity and Innovation
technology, information technology, internet, spillovers, user-generated content, content creation, Open source, Wikipedia, joint production
Taking a bite out of Apple? Fixing international corporate taxation
Ruud de Mooij, Michael Keen, Victoria Perry 14 September 2014
Multinational companies’ ability to pay little corporate income tax has grabbed headlines recently. This column argues that the details of international tax rules matter for macroeconomic performance – especially in low-income countries. This emphasises the importance of the G20–OECD Action Plan on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting. However, dealing properly with tax spillovers will require a deeper global debate about the international tax architecture itself.
It’s hard to pick up a newspaper these days (or, more likely for those reading this, do the digital equivalent) without reading about Apple, Amazon, Google, or a host of others managing, by some magic, to pay little corporate income tax – and the consequent outrage of duly shocked and horrified politicians. Entertaining though all this is, understanding the rules that make such tax avoidance possible is a dull task that many of us are happy to leave to the tax nerds – detail really matters (just ask an international tax lawyer).
tax, taxation, IMF, corporate taxation, corporate income tax, spillovers, tax treaties, tax avoidance, multinationals, tax competition, tax harmonisation
Why is financial stability essential for key currencies in the international monetary system?
Linda Goldberg, Signe Krogstrup, John Lipsky, Hélène Rey 26 July 2014
The dollar’s dominant role in international trade and finance has proved remarkably resilient. This column argues that financial stability – and the policy and institutional frameworks that underpin it – are important new determinants of currencies’ international roles. While old drivers still matter, progress achieved on financial-stability reforms in major currency areas will greatly influence the future roles of their currencies.
Could the dollar lose its status as the key international currency for international trade and international financial transactions, and if so, what would be the principal contributing factors? Speculation about this issue has long been abundant, and views diverse. After the introduction of the euro, there was much public debate about the euro displacing the dollar (Frankel 2008). The monitoring and analysis included in the ECB’s reports on “The International Role of the Euro” (e.g.
Financial markets International finance
reserve currency, financial stability, dollar, capital flows, spillovers, Currency, SIFIs
Do capital controls deflect capital flows?
Paolo Giordani, Michele Ruta, Hans Weisfeld, Ling Zhu 23 June 2014
Capital controls may help countries limit large and volatile capital inflows, but they may also have spillover effects on other countries. This column discusses recent research showing that inflow restrictions have significant spillover effects as they deflect capital flows to countries with similar economic characteristics.
The size and volatility of capital flows to developing countries have increased significantly in recent years (Figure 1), leading many economists to argue that national policies and multilateral institutions are needed to govern these flows (Forbes and Klein 2013, Blanchard and Ostry 2012). The IMF itself has reviewed its position on the liberalisation and management of capital flows, while recognising that “much further work remains to be done to improve policy coordination in the financial sector” (IMF 2012, p. 28).
China, capital flows, spillovers, South Africa, capital controls, Brazil, Capital inflows, international capital flows
Spillovers from systemic bank defaults
Mark Mink, Jakob de Haan 24 May 2014
To date, much uncertainty exists about how large the spillovers would be from the default of a systemically important bank. This column shows evidence that the market values of US and EU banks hardly respond to changes in the default risk of banks that the Financial Stability Board considers globally systemically important (G-SIBs). However, changes in all G-SIBs’ default risk explain a substantial part of changes in bank market values. These findings have implications for financial-crisis management and prevention policies.
Financial-crisis management and prevention policies often focus on mitigating spillovers from the default of systemically important banks. During the recent crisis, governments avoided large bank failures by insuring and purchasing intermediaries’ troubled assets, by providing them with capital injections, and even by outright nationalisations. After the crisis, financial regulators designed additional requirements for those institutions that the Financial Stability Board designated as globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs).
financial stability, spillovers, regulation, banking, banks, systemic risk
The economic impact of inward FDI on the US
Theodore H. Moran, Lindsay Oldenski 04 March 2014
The US has once again ranked among the top two recipient countries for foreign direct investment. This column examines the effects of these large FDI inflows on the US domestic economy. Foreign multinationals are – alongside US-headquartered American multinationals – the most productive and highest-paying segment of the US economy. In addition, they provide positive spillovers to US firms. About 12% of the total productivity growth in the US from 1987 to 2007 can be attributed to productivity spillovers from inward FDI.
The US is the second-largest recipient of FDI in the world, behind China, and by far the largest target for FDI among OECD countries (OECD 2013). The numbers are large ($253 billion for the US), and the gap with the next-largest in the OECD is impressive ($63 billion for the UK and $62 billion for France in 2012).
Productivity and Innovation
R&D, US, productivity, wages, multinationals, FDI, spillovers
Overcoming the obstacles to international macro policy coordination is hard
Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan D Ostry, Atish R Ghosh 20 December 2013
The world has just been through a period of unprecedented macro policy activism. More is set to come as central banks exit unconventional policies, governments fix their fiscal positions, and financial regulations are reformed. These national policies have undeniable international spillovers. This column argues that the setting is ripe for more cooperation and suggests some ways forward, even if international macro policy coordination may continue to be heard about more often than it is seen.
International policy coordination is like the Loch Ness monster – much discussed but rarely seen. Going back over the decades, and even further in history to the period between the two world wars, coordination efforts have been episodic.
Coordination seems to occur spontaneously in turbulent periods, when the world faces the prospect of some calamitous outcome and the key players are seeking to avoid cascading negative spillovers. In quieter times coordination is rarer, though not unheard of – the Louvre and Plaza accords are examples.
spillovers, fiscal consolidation, financial regulation, policy coordination, unconventional monetary policy, currency war
Multinationals assist domestic suppliers? Perhaps think again
Olivier N. Godart, Holger Görg, Christiane Krieger-Boden 29 April 2013
The positive spillovers from multinationals to the productivity of their host-country suppliers are empirically well established. Usually, it is assumed that multinationals aid their suppliers by voluntarily sharing knowledge and cooperating with them. This column argues the spillovers might rather result from blunt pressure by the multinationals, forcing their suppliers to adopt new practices and to adapt to new standards.
It is empirically well established that multinationals raise productivity levels of their local suppliers in their host countries. Firm-level data show that productivity of upstream industries is the higher the higher the importance of multinationals in downstream industries is (e.g. Javorcik 2004, Barrios et al. 2011).
Development International finance International trade
multinationals, spillovers, backward linkages