Understanding the decline in the labour force participation rate in the United States

Steven Braun, John Coglianese, Jason Furman, Betsey Stevenson, Jim Stock 18 August 2014

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In part due to the vigorous, multi-front response to the economic crisis, the US has enjoyed a sustained economic recovery that has exceeded most contemporaneous and historical financial crisis benchmarks. Up until a year ago, the unemployment rate was falling by an average of 0.7 percentage points per year, roughly tracking the more successful historical experiences, and well exceeding the norm following a financial crisis. In the past year, the pace of the decline in the unemployment rate has doubled.

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Topics:  Global crisis Labour markets

Tags:  Labour force participation, US, Ageing population

Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBook

Coen Teulings, Richard Baldwin 15 August 2014

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Economic growth is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates.

  • Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? What does secular stagnation really mean? And if it’s for real, what must be done?

Today, VoxEU.org launches an eBook that gathers the views of leading economists including Summers, Krugman, Gordon, Blanchard, Koo, Eichengreen, Caballero, Glaeser and a dozen others (edited by Coen Teulings and me). Collectively, the chapters suggest that something historic is afoot.

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Topics:  Global crisis Macroeconomic policy Monetary policy

Tags:  interest rates, US, Europe, Japan, investment, macroeconomics, Great Recession, zero lower bound, savings, secular stagnation, SecStag debate

Conflict between US-led and China-led economic architecture

Pradumna B. Rana 05 August 2014

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The Bretton Woods agreement – which is 70 years old this month – established three institutions to promote law and order in international economic relations:

  • The IMF to promote macroeconomic stability,
  • The GATT (and its successor, the WTO) to ensure an open trading environment, and
  • The World Bank to provide development finance for poverty reduction.

The smooth operation of this rules-based, US-led global economic architecture contributed to the unprecedented economic growth and worldwide prosperity of the post-WWII period.

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Topics:  Global governance

Tags:  US, China, IMF, global governance, World Bank, multilateralisation, troika

It takes more than two to tango: Cry, but not for Argentina, nor for the holdouts

Jeffrey Frankel 22 July 2014

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US federal courts have ruled that Argentina is prohibited from making payments to fulfil 2005 and 2010 agreements with its creditors to restructure its debt, so long as it is not also paying the few creditors that have all along been holdouts from those agreements. The judgment is likely to stick because the judge (Thomas Griesa, in New York) told American banks on 27 June that it would be illegal for them to transfer Argentina’s payments to the 92% of creditors who agreed to be restructured, and because the US Supreme Court in June declined to review the lower court rulings.

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Topics:  Development Global governance

Tags:  US, sovereign debt, Argentina

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Review of the debate on economic blogs

David Saha 20 July 2014

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A study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR 2013) for the European Commission models the effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) in a computable general equilibrium model. An ambitious deal, consisting of tariff barriers being lowered to zero, non-tariff barriers lowered by 25%, and public procurement barriers reduced by 50%, would lead to an increase in EU GDP by 0.5% by 2027. Growth effects for the rest of the world will be positive, on average, 0.14% of GDP due to increased demand from the EU and US.

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Topics:  Global governance International trade

Tags:  US, EU, TTIP

Why the US and EU are failing to set information free

Susan Ariel Aaronson 14 July 2014

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Tim Berners-Lee, the architect of the World Wide Web, taught us that the internet we have is a function of the choices we (users, companies, policymakers, etc.) make about information flows. For example, in 1995, Berners-Lee chose not to patent his work on the World Wide Web because he feared patenting it could limit its universality and openness. He continues to advocate this. In March 2014, he called for an online bill of rights and created a new organisation to ensure that the web would remain the “web we want” – open, free, and neutral.

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Topics:  EU policies Global governance International trade

Tags:  US, EU, WTO, information technology, trade, technology, internet, Human rights, national security, Information, free trade agreements, data protection, privacy

Lessons from the financial preparations in the lead-up to the first world war

Harold James 09 July 2014

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The 1907 panic emanated from the US but affected the rest of the world and demonstrated the fragility of the whole international financial order. The aftermath of the 1907 crash drove the then hegemonic power – Great Britain – to reflect on how it could use its financial power. There is a close link between the aftermath of a great financial crisis and the escalation of diplomatic tensions that led to war in 1914.

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Topics:  Economic history

Tags:  Germany, US, WWI, Great Britain

TPPing over?

Jayant Menon 01 July 2014

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Introduction

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Topics:  International trade

Tags:  US, trade agreements, TPP

Culture: Persistence and evolution

Francesco Giavazzi, Ivan Petkov, Fabio Schiantarelli 16 June 2014

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Are a person’s values and beliefs persistent, or do they evolve – possibly rather quickly – in response to the economic and institutional environment? This is a central question, for instance, if one is interested in assessing the likelihood of success of reforms that change rules within a country. Are such reforms doomed because a country’s culture cannot be changed, or can they succeed because they can change cultural attitudes by altering incentives, and if so, over what time horizon?

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Topics:  Frontiers of economic research Institutions and economics Migration

Tags:  US, immigration, religion, values, Culture, attitudes, beliefs

Net neutrality: A simple goal with some difficult implementation ahead

Joshua Gans 11 June 2014

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Net neutrality has a simple goal – to ensure that consumers face an undistorted choice in choosing where to devote their attention on the Internet. The rationale for that goal is to ensure a ‘level playing field’ for those who provide content, applications, or anything else via the Internet.

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Topics:  Competition policy Industrial organisation Microeconomic regulation

Tags:  US, technology, market power, regulation, internet, price discrimination, net neutrality, Federal Communications Commission

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