Maritta Paloviita, Markus Haavio, Pirkka Jalasjoki, Juha Kilponen, 24 October 2017

Price stability is an explicit target for the ECB, but the definition of the 2% target is less clear in its monetary policy stance over time. This column presents two alternative interpretations of the ECB’s definition of price stability. First, the ECB dislikes inflation rates above 2% more than rates below 2%. Second, the ECB’s policy responses to past inflation gaps are symmetric around a target of 1.6% to 1.7%. Out-of-sample predictions of the reaction function based on the second interpretation track well an estimated shadow interest rate during the zero lower bound period.

Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Johannes Wieland, 21 September 2016

Models that estimate optimal inflation rates struggle to accurately account for interest rates reaching the zero lower bound, due to the lack of historical data available. This column suggests periods of hitting the zero lower bound are longer than previously thought, and models the optimal inflation rate target on this. Given the uncertainty associated with measuring the historical frequency and duration of such episodes, the wide range of plausible optimal inflation rates implies that any inflation targets should be treated with caution.

Laurence Ball, Joseph Gagnon, Patrick Honohan, Signe Krogstrup, 02 September 2016

This column presents the latest Geneva Report on the World Economy, in which the authors argue that central banks can do more to stimulate economies and restore full employment when nominal interest rates are near zero. Quantitative easing and negative interest rates have had beneficial effects so far and can be used more aggressively, and the lower bound constraint can be mitigated by modestly raising inflation targets.    

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