Sijbren Cnossen, Arjan Lejour, Maarten van ’t Riet, 24 November 2017

Some US multinationals have displayed a willingness to relinquish their American nationality and move their headquarters abroad. Such ‘inversions’ generally aim to avoid and minimise taxes. This column argues that the new Trump tax plan is likely to halt tax inversions by US multinationals. However, the plan will increase treaty shopping, incentivising multinationals to redirect dividends through third-party countries with generous tax treaties.

Mario Blejer, Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, 22 November 2017

Global politics of late has been marked by the rise of anti-elite political movements and anti-establishment leaders. This column analyses the tactics of such populists through the lens of the ‘time inconsistency’ problem – that what is considered a long-term optimal policy today may not be optimal when that future arrives. Populist leaders seek to gain and increase their power by undermining democratic institutions and conventional commitment devices. Several ‘second generation’ institutional commitment devices to counter this are proposed.

Gabriel Felbermayr, Marina Steininger, Erdal Yalcin, 22 November 2017

The Trump administration intends to restructure US international trade relations with its major trade partners to correct what it perceives to be unfair trade and establish a ‘level playing field’. This column uses a structurally estimated and simulated trade model to analyse three potential protectionist policies that have been discussed by the administration. The results suggest that the promise to create more jobs and investment in the US through such policies is a fallacy.

Mario Monti, 14 November 2017

The Anglo-Saxons have been admired for their sense of rationality. However Mario Monti talks about recent political events that completely changed the situation. This video was recorded at the "10 years after the crisis" conference held in London, on 22 September 2017.

Barry Eichengreen, Michael Haines, Matthew Jaremski, David Leblang, 25 October 2017

The 1896 US presidential election has acquired new resonance in light of the recent up-surge in populism. This column combines voting results with economic, financial, and demographic data from the 1890s to offer a systematic empirical study of voting patterns in the election. The results confirm a role for identity politics, but also a role for economic factors. They also suggest, however, that a small or even moderate change in economic conditions would not have altered the outcome of the 1896 election, nor the subsequent course of American history.  

Gordon Hanson, Chen Liu, Craig McIntosh, 04 October 2017

Rising inequality and stagnating manufacturing wages have many in the Western world questioning whether immigration may be responsible. This column takes a close look at data for the US, and reveals that tighter immigration controls are unlikely to improve the fortunes of low-skilled workers. Long-term demographic changes in the Americas imply that the pressure from illegal immigrants on US labour markets is already abating and will continue to do so.

Levi Boxell, 01 October 2017

The internet has received a substantial amount of blame for the recent increase in political polarisation. Using US data, this column argues that, in fact, the internet has played no significant role in a generally increasing trend of political polarisation that goes back at least to the 1970s. The results highlight the importance of looking beyond convenient narrative explanations, and the need for a deeper understanding of the drivers of political sentiment.

William Nordhaus, 23 August 2017

The change in the structure of global supply has important implications for US President Donald Trump as he contemplates tearing up existing international trade deals. This column argues that he risks destroying the fruits of almost 100 years of global trade cooperation, the benefits of which to citizens in the US far outweigh the costs. This spirit of cooperation is also the basis for coordinated global action on issues such as climate change.

William Nordhaus, 22 August 2017

President Trump’s doctrine on trade represents a radical break with previous US policy. This column, the first of two examining the Trump doctrine, argues that he embraces fallacies as facts, and that the efforts to reform tax are flawed and will make tax law more complex. If enacted, the Auerbach-Ryan Tax Plan would be a mechanism by which the US government collects taxes to benefit rich citizens at the expense of the country's trading partners.

Hugo Erken, Philip Marey, Maartje Wijffelaars, 15 August 2017

Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has been an increasingly vocal proponent of protectionist measures. This column presents five reasons why he is unlikely to resort to full-blown protectionism: political motivations, WTO membership, the possibility of retaliation, the existence of global value chain integration and revenue streams, and the fact that automation rather than trade has caused most job losses in the US. If Trump does resort to protectionism, however, and other countries retaliate, US GDP could face cumulative losses of up to 4.5% over two years.

Nikhil Datta, Swati Dhingra, 16 July 2017

The economies of Europe and the United States are inextricably linked and in an ideal world, a number of factors motivate a trade deal such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU eBook, argues, however, that given the Brexit referendum in the UK and the election of Donald Trump as US president, as well as a number of other pre-existing complications, achieving such agreements will be highly contentious. 

Stephen Cecchetti, Kim Schoenholtz, 14 July 2017

The US Treasury recently published the first in a series of reports designed to implement the seven core principles for regulating the US financial system announced in an Executive Order from President Trump. While Trump's stated principles provide an attractive basis for making the financial system both more cost-effective and safer, this column argues that, at least when considering the largest banks, adopting the Treasury’s recommendations would make the financial system less safe. And, it would do so with little prospect for boosting economic growth.

Simon Evenett, Johannes Fritz, 05 July 2017

The year to date has seen profound changes in G20 protectionist dynamics.This column presents the lastest Global Trade Report, which asks whether President Trump’s bluster has accomplished what the G20 failed to deliver – namely, less protectionism.

Mary Amiti, Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki, 19 June 2017

One component of the Republicans’ cash-flow tax proposal for corporate reform in the US is the inclusion of a border adjustment tax. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU.org eBook, assesess this politically controversial and often misconstrued tax adjustment that makes export sales deductible from the corporate tax base, while expenditure on imported goods would not be deductible. 

Ravi Kanbur, 13 June 2017

With the World Bank now far from the only game in town in providing development finance, this column argues that it should focus on issues which are truly global in scope, but questions the suitability of the World Bank’s signature instrument, the sovereign loan. The international community does rely on the Word Bank for one global public good – global consensus building – but the current situation of veto power in the hands of a US government which does not acknowledge global public good issues, as evidenced by its withdrawal from the Paris accord, is potentially lethal for perceived and actual independence in consensus building.

Thomas Buchmueller, Helen Levy, 11 June 2017

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), enacted in 2010, was intended to address long- standing problems with the American system of health care and health insurance. This column, taken from a new VoxEU eBook, reviews the main provisions of the ACA related to insurance coverage and healthcare costs, including what is known so far about their impact. It also discusses the recent Republican attempt to ‘repeal and replace’ the law.

Caroline Freund, 07 June 2017

In assessing the underlying causes of the US’ significant trade deficits, the Trump administration’s focus appears to be on alleged unfair trade practices of foreign countries. This column argues that international trade policy has a negligible effect on trade balances. The aggregate US trade deficit results from macroeconomic pressures, while bilateral deficits are due to structural factors, supply chains, and how trade is measured. 

Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig, 20 February 2017

The revival of nationalism in western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to show that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese exports. Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected industries or not. 

Alexander Wagner, Richard Zeckhauser, Alexandre Ziegler, 24 February 2017

The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States will profoundly affect the US and world economies. This column argues that the stock market has already identified winners and losers among companies and industries. It finds, for example, that investors expect US firms paying high taxes to be relative winners from the Trump presidency, and firms with substantial foreign involvement to be relative losers.   

Meredith Crowley, Huasheng Song, Ning Meng, 10 February 2017

The Trump administration’s announcement of its intention to impose a 20% tax on goods imported from Mexico and its calls for a 45% import tariff on goods from China have alarmed businesses and consumers alike. This column uses data on the foreign market entry decisions of Chinese firms to assess the impact that tariff scares and trade policy uncertainty have on trade flows. The evidence suggests that Trump's threats to raise tariffs can reduce US imports even if the administration doesn't follow through with the threatened tax increases.

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