William Nordhaus, 22 August 2017

President Trump’s doctrine on trade represents a radical break with previous US policy. This column, the first of two examining the Trump doctrine, argues that he embraces fallacies as facts, and that the efforts to reform tax are flawed and will make tax law more complex. If enacted, the Auerbach-Ryan Tax Plan would be a mechanism by which the US government collects taxes to benefit rich citizens at the expense of the country's trading partners.

Hugo Erken, Philip Marey, Maartje Wijffelaars, 15 August 2017

Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has been an increasingly vocal proponent of protectionist measures. This column presents five reasons why he is unlikely to resort to full-blown protectionism: political motivations, WTO membership, the possibility of retaliation, the existence of global value chain integration and revenue streams, and the fact that automation rather than trade has caused most job losses in the US. If Trump does resort to protectionism, however, and other countries retaliate, US GDP could face cumulative losses of up to 4.5% over two years.

Nikhil Datta, Swati Dhingra, 16 July 2017

The economies of Europe and the United States are inextricably linked and in an ideal world, a number of factors motivate a trade deal such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU eBook, argues, however, that given the Brexit referendum in the UK and the election of Donald Trump as US president, as well as a number of other pre-existing complications, achieving such agreements will be highly contentious. 

Stephen Cecchetti, Kim Schoenholtz, 14 July 2017

The US Treasury recently published the first in a series of reports designed to implement the seven core principles for regulating the US financial system announced in an Executive Order from President Trump. While Trump's stated principles provide an attractive basis for making the financial system both more cost-effective and safer, this column argues that, at least when considering the largest banks, adopting the Treasury’s recommendations would make the financial system less safe. And, it would do so with little prospect for boosting economic growth.

Simon Evenett, Johannes Fritz, 06 July 2017

The year to date has seen profound changes in G20 protectionist dynamics.This column presents the lastest Global Trade Report, which asks whether President Trump’s bluster has accomplished what the G20 failed to deliver – namely, less protectionism.

Mary Amiti, Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, Oleg Itskhoki, 19 June 2017

One component of the Republicans’ cash-flow tax proposal for corporate reform in the US is the inclusion of a border adjustment tax. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU.org eBook, assesess this politically controversial and often misconstrued tax adjustment that makes export sales deductible from the corporate tax base, while expenditure on imported goods would not be deductible. 

Ravi Kanbur, 13 June 2017

With the World Bank now far from the only game in town in providing development finance, this column argues that it should focus on issues which are truly global in scope, but questions the suitability of the World Bank’s signature instrument, the sovereign loan. The international community does rely on the Word Bank for one global public good – global consensus building – but the current situation of veto power in the hands of a US government which does not acknowledge global public good issues, as evidenced by its withdrawal from the Paris accord, is potentially lethal for perceived and actual independence in consensus building.

Thomas Buchmueller, Helen Levy, 11 June 2017

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), enacted in 2010, was intended to address long- standing problems with the American system of health care and health insurance. This column, taken from a new VoxEU eBook, reviews the main provisions of the ACA related to insurance coverage and healthcare costs, including what is known so far about their impact. It also discusses the recent Republican attempt to ‘repeal and replace’ the law.

Caroline Freund, 07 June 2017

In assessing the underlying causes of the US’ significant trade deficits, the Trump administration’s focus appears to be on alleged unfair trade practices of foreign countries. This column argues that international trade policy has a negligible effect on trade balances. The aggregate US trade deficit results from macroeconomic pressures, while bilateral deficits are due to structural factors, supply chains, and how trade is measured. 

Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig, 20 February 2017

The revival of nationalism in western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to show that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese exports. Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected industries or not. 

Alexander Wagner, Richard Zeckhauser, Alexandre Ziegler, 24 February 2017

The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States will profoundly affect the US and world economies. This column argues that the stock market has already identified winners and losers among companies and industries. It finds, for example, that investors expect US firms paying high taxes to be relative winners from the Trump presidency, and firms with substantial foreign involvement to be relative losers.   

Meredith Crowley, Huasheng Song, Ning Meng, 10 February 2017

The Trump administration’s announcement of its intention to impose a 20% tax on goods imported from Mexico and its calls for a 45% import tariff on goods from China have alarmed businesses and consumers alike. This column uses data on the foreign market entry decisions of Chinese firms to assess the impact that tariff scares and trade policy uncertainty have on trade flows. The evidence suggests that Trump's threats to raise tariffs can reduce US imports even if the administration doesn't follow through with the threatened tax increases.

Robert Shiller, James Heckman, Oliver Hart, 20 January 2017

What's next for the American economy? In this video, several Nobel Laureates give advice to President Donald J. Trump.

Chad Bown, 29 November 2016

Trade agreements involving the US could be the first economic casualty of the 2016 election. The existing US trade agreements rose from the ashes of WWII and the Great Depression. This column argues that understanding how they protect the US economy, American workers, and consumers is critical to avoiding a repeat of the policy mistakes of earlier eras.

Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, 12 November 2016

Unlike technical progress in transport or communication technologies, regional trade agreements are political decisions that can be reversed, as Brexit and the campaign promises of President-elect Donald Trump to raise tariffs on imports from Mexico demonstrate. This column analyses the consequences for the car industry of these two examples of the dismantling of an RTA. Car production would fall significantly in the UK under Brexit and in Mexico under ‘Trumpit’ due to a combination of tariff-induced sales losses and increased plant costs.

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