Political booms, financial crises: Why popular governments are not always a good sign

Christoph Trebesch, Helios Herrera, Guillermo L. Ordoñez 06 September 2014

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Financial crises: the search for early warning indicators

Financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon in the history of emerging markets and advanced economies alike. To understand the common causes of these crises and to prevent future ones from developing, economists have a long tradition of studying early warning indicators. Two well-documented predictors of financial crises are credit booms and capital flow bonanzas.

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Topics:  Financial markets Politics and economics

Tags:  credit booms, financial crisis, politics, emerging markets, capital flows, public opinion, popularity

The US economy performs better under Democratic presidents. Why?

Alan S. Blinder, Mark Watson 04 September 2014

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Economists and political scientists – not to mention the political commentariat – have devoted a huge amount of attention to the well-established fact that faster economic growth helps re-elect the incumbent party (see, for example, Fair 2011 for the US). But what about causation in the opposite direction – from election outcomes to economic performance? It turns out that the US economy grows faster – indeed, performs better by almost every metric – when a Democratic president occupies the White House.

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Topics:  Politics and economics

Tags:  US, politics, Democrats, Republicans, growth, macroeconomics, self-fulfilling prophecies

Public opinion on immigration: Has the recession changed minds?

Timothy J Hatton 07 June 2014

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Topics:  Migration Politics and economics

Tags:  democracy, immigration, politics, populism, European parliament

Who needs the nation state?

Dani Rodrik,

Date Published

Sun, 07/01/2012

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Raising the bar for incumbents

Hans Gersbach 03 January 2012

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Incumbents in the US House of Representatives or US Senate are extraordinarily successful when they seek re-election. Depending on the office-holder's ability and time horizon, this can be a good or bad thing for the country’s voters.

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Topics:  Politics and economics

Tags:  elections, US, politics

Fair and balanced after all? The bias of the US press

Riccardo Puglisi, James M. Snyder, Jr. 01 September 2011

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Citizens typically obtain information about relevant policy issues via the mass media. Moreover, they might make judgements about the relative importance of issues – whether crime or the economy is the most important problem facing society, for example – by comparing the relative amount of media coverage issues receive, otherwise known as “agenda-setting” (McCombs and Shaw 1972).

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Topics:  Politics and economics

Tags:  US, media, politics, media bias, liberals

Democracy, quality of government, and the average voter

Piergiuseppe Fortunato, Ugo Panizza 04 June 2011

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The standard efficiency argument in favour of democracy is based on the idea that free elections are an effective instrument for ousting inept and corrupt politicians (e.g. Sen 2000). This view, however, is based on the assumptions that voters are capable of monitoring and evaluating government actions.

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Topics:  Education Politics and economics

Tags:  education, democracy, politics

Why globalisation might have started in the eighteenth century

Paul Sharp 16 May 2008

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It is well known that the world was impressively economically integrated by the end of the nineteenth century. In fact, some economic historians refer to this period as “the first globalisation.” The traditional explanation for this integration focuses on technological improvements that removed barriers to trade, as steam replaced sail and railroads began to ease long distance transportation. New evidence suggests, however, that there was a potential for globalisation a century earlier.

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Topics:  Politics and economics

Tags:  globalisation, economic integration, politics

Lessons from the history of trade and war

Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, Ronald Findlay 10 March 2008

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To many seasoned observers of the world economy, today’s globalisation is a largely technological phenomenon.1 Once learned, new technologies are typically not forgotten, which is why globalisation can seem an irresistible force, destined to bind us ever more tightly together for the foreseeable future. History, however, suggests that globalisation is as much a political as a technological phenomenon, which can thus be easily reversed, and has been so in the past.

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Topics:  International trade

Tags:  globalization, technology, industrialization, politics