Policymakers use forecasting to attempt to assess the impact of major events, such as the recent Brexit vote, on the economy. While forecasting has improved dramatically in recent years, the models can still be greatly improved. This column discusses some of the limitations of forecasting models, and how policymakers can make their predictions more reliable. Key considerations are using more data to generate predictions, and using myriad models to eliminate individual misspecifications.
Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann,
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, 07 July 2016
Low inflation targets can cause economies to hit the zero lower bound during deflationary periods caused by even mild shocks. In such circumstances, central banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy. This column assesses the risk of this happening using a model that endogenises self-perpetuating optimism and pessimism in the economy. Given agents’ intrinsic chronic pessimism during times of recession, central banks should raise their inflation targets to 3 or 4% to preserve their ability to stimulate the economy when needed.
ADBI invites the submission of theoretical and empirical papers on the implications of negative interest rates for emerging Asia. We are looking for original unpublished research related to, but not limited to, the following topics:
Implication of an extremely low- or negative-yield environment for risk-taking behaviors in Asia and the possibility of financial market dislocations
Side effects of NIRPs on financial markets and real economies of Asia
Transmission channels for the impact of NIRPs on Asian financial markets and exchange rate markets
NIRPs’ challenges in monetary and exchange rate policy and macroprudential policy management in Asia
NIRPs’ potential impact on international reserve holdings in Asia
NIRPs and current account imbalances in Asia
Greater role of international policy coordination in Asia
NIRPs’ impact on banking behavior
Alberto Cavallo, Roberto Rigobon, 24 April 2016
Big Data is changing the world, even economics. This column describes MIT’s Billion Prices Project and discusses key lessons for both inflation measurement and some fundamental research questions in macro and international economics. Online prices can be used to construct daily price indexes in multiple countries and to help avoid measurement biases.
Nick Ligthart, Ashoka Mody, 14 April 2016
Many claim that monetary policy has hit diminishing returns. They use that as an explanation for the slower economic growth and low inflation in the Eurozone. This column argues that the main problem is that the ECB acted late and with half-measures to the Global Crisis, which was seen as falling short of its promises. The real problem is thus not a lack of ammunition, but a lack of credibility.
Alex Cukierman, 01 April 2016
Central banks are there to ensure price stability, and economists generally agree that politics and central banking don’t mix well. This column takes us through the inflationary and more controlled history of Israel’s central bank, highlighting the current policy dilemmas facing the country.
Alex Cukierman, 30 March 2016
The quantity theory of money implies that sustained inflation requires a sustained increase in the money supply. It does not, however, imply that the reverse is also true. This column explores and illustrates this issue by comparing inflation in the US following the collapse of Lehman Brothers with Germany’s hyperinflation experience after WWI. A key factor explaining the vastly different inflation experiences is how the monetary expansion translated into demand. The Fed’s base expansion did not translate into demand for goods and services, whereas the German monetary expansion was motivated by the government’s hunger for seigniorage revenues.
Biagio Bossone, Stefano Labini, 19 February 2016
The ECB’s response to the Crisis – not providing stimulus to the Eurozone economy when it needed it, and allowing it to slip into a low inflation trap – is a reflection of the monetary union’s faulty architecture. This column recalls a 1998 manifesto from several distinguished scholars that warned EZ policymakers of the potential consequences of a misguided policy framework. Two sets of issues need to be critically addressed by current EZ policymakers: its objectives and instruments.
Pablo Pincheira, Jorge Selaive, Jose Luis Nolazco, 15 February 2016
One thing economists can agree on is that inflation is hard to forecast. This column argues that in this context, the idea that ‘core inflation’ may be a useful predictor is very appealing, especially for central banks that need to know where inflation is heading. Evaluating the ability of core to forecast headline inflation for OECD and some non-OECD countries, it seems that sizable predictability emerges for a very small subset of countries, but it is either subtle or undetectable for most other economies.
Máximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 01 December 2015
Today's monetary policy effectiveness depends on expectations of future monetary policy. Shocks affect such expectations, but the nature of the shock matters. This column presents evidence that negative demand shocks lead markets to expect looser policy in the short run. Negative supply shocks lead to expectations of looser policy in the medium to long run. Unexpected expansions – from either the supply or demand side – have no significant influence on markets' expectations of future monetary policy.
Refet Gürkaynak, Troy Davig, 25 November 2015
Central banks around the world have been shouldering ever-increasing policy burdens beyond their core mandate of stabilising prices. This column considers the social welfare implications when central banks take on additional mandates that are usually the domain of other policymakers. Additional mandates are shown to worsen trade-offs faced by the central bank, while distorting the incentives of other policymakers. Central bank ‘mandate creep’ may be detrimental to welfare.
Athanasios Orphanides, 11 November 2015
There is generally consensus among macroeconomists that monetary policy works best when it is systematic. Following the financial crisis, the US Federal Reserve shifted from long-term, systematic policy to short-term goals targeting unemployment. This column argues that, while these were appropriate in the aftermath of the downturn, such policy accommodations have been pursued for too long since. The need for a somewhat accommodative policy cannot be used to defend the current non-systematic policy and excessive emphasis on short-term employment gains.
Mouhamadou Sy, 09 November 2015
From the introduction of the euro in 1999 to the Greek crisis in 2010, the Eurozone witnessed external imbalances between countries at its core and those at its periphery. These imbalances have been attributed either to differences in competitiveness or to the effect of financial integration. This column argues that in order to understand the imbalances within the Eurozone, it is necessary to consider credit costs and capital flows. The lower real cost of credit for high-inflation countries must be taken into account, as well as the inflow of capital to the non-tradable sector that this implies. Monetary policy cannot be conducted in a ‘one size fits all’ manner.
Stefano Neri, Stefano Siviero, 15 August 2015
EZ inflation has been falling steadily since early 2013, turning negative in late 2014. This column surveys a host of recent research from Banca d’Italia that examined the drivers of this fall, its macroeconomic effects, and ECB responses. Aggregate demand and oil prices played key roles in the drop, which has consistently ‘surprised’ market-based expectations. Towards the end of 2014 the risk of the ECB de-anchoring inflation expectations from the definition of price stability became material.
Stefan Gerlach, Reamonn Lydon, Rebecca Stuart, 21 July 2015
Despite being a mainstay of macroeconomic theory for the past half century, the Phillips curve often receives the death knell from various commentators. These critiques often rely on results from data samples spanning relatively short periods. Using the case of Ireland, this column argues that short-term idiosyncrasies can explain the failure of the model in these contexts. Taking a longer historical view, the Phillips curve remains a useful macroeconomic model, at least in the Irish context.
Martin Brown, Ralph De Haas, Vladimir Sokolow, 14 March 2015
Financial dollarisation, the widespread holding of assets and liabilities in a foreign currency, is often viewed as a threat to financial stability in emerging markets. However, there is not enough evidence that monetary policy is responsible for low dollarisation. This column uses cross-regional evidence from Russia to show that monetary stability is indeed a key determinant of dollarisation. Moreover, banking integration strongly influences how households and firms adjust the currency composition of their assets and liabilities to changes in monetary conditions.
Charles Goodhart, 02 March 2015
Following the Warsh Review, the recording, number, and timing of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meetings will change. This column argues that the recording may make the decision meeting more formal and could inhibit debate, although the eight-year gap before publishing transcripts ameliorates this concern. Having fewer MPC meetings is a good thing, and reduces ‘noise’ around monetary policy. The revised meeting schedule will not add to transparency and raises the risk of leaks and ‘news shocks’.
Johannes Stroebel, Joseph Vavra, 26 January 2015
Rising prices have long been a concern of monetary policymakers due to wealth effects on spending. This column presents evidence that local demand effects from house price increases result in significant local price inflation. Households living in locations with rapidly increasing real estate prices will also face rapidly increasing costs of goods purchased in local stores.
Laurence Ball, Sandeep Mazumder, 07 January 2015
Researchers have put forward two explanations for the failure of the US inflation rate to fall as far during the Great Recession as the Phillips curve would predict. Either expectations have been successfully anchored by the Fed’s inflation target, or the Phillips curve is focusing on the wrong thing – aggregate unemployment instead of short-term unemployment. This column shows that the two explanations are complementary; together, they explain the puzzle, but separately they cannot.
Philippe Andrade, Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, 23 December 2014
Expectations are critical for macroeconomics and financial markets. But the expectation-formation process is not well understood. This column discusses some empirical characteristics of forecast disagreement from professional forecasters in the US, and discusses the ‘information frictions’ that underlie the heterogeneity of expectations.