Rapid growth in emerging markets and developing economies: Now and forever?

Giang Ho, Paolo Mauro 12 September 2014

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Projecting a country’s economic growth into the medium term and beyond is notoriously difficult. At the same time, getting the growth projections wrong has major adverse consequences. For fiscal policymakers, overestimating future economic growth implies underestimating the government debt-to-GDP ratio that will be reached at the end of the projection period (in the absence of corrective policy measures).

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Topics:  Development Macroeconomic policy

Tags:  optimism bias, forecasting, growth, IMF, World Bank

The US economy performs better under Democratic presidents. Why?

Alan S. Blinder, Mark Watson 04 September 2014

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Economists and political scientists – not to mention the political commentariat – have devoted a huge amount of attention to the well-established fact that faster economic growth helps re-elect the incumbent party (see, for example, Fair 2011 for the US). But what about causation in the opposite direction – from election outcomes to economic performance? It turns out that the US economy grows faster – indeed, performs better by almost every metric – when a Democratic president occupies the White House.

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Topics:  Politics and economics

Tags:  US, politics, Democrats, Republicans, growth, macroeconomics, self-fulfilling prophecies

Growth escalators and growth convergence

Ejaz Ghani 17 August 2014

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The literature on global growth convergence and divergence is vast and deep. And it is still evolving. Some have argued that global growth is actually diverging across countries. Pritchett (1977) called this “divergence, big time”, whereby the living standards of a few countries pulled away from the rest in the aftermath of the industrial revolution. Others have found evidence in favour of growth convergence.

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Topics:  Development

Tags:  growth, Africa, convergence

African growth looking forward

Marco Annunziata 16 August 2014

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Views on Africa’s growth prospects have jumped from utter pessimism to extreme enthusiasm. The latter has been centre-stage with the US–Africa Summit hosted in Washington DC from 4–6 August 2014, with the participation of top political and business leaders. My coauthors Todd Johnson and Shlomi Kramer and I have tried to take a sober assessment of Africa’s progress and prospects, looking beyond the current hype and the inevitable frustration that doing business in the region still generates (Annunziata et al. 2014).

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Topics:  Development

Tags:  development, growth, Africa, human capital, trade, innovation, infrastructure, commodity boom

Protection of intellectual property to foster innovations in the service sector

Masayuki Morikawa 20 July 2014

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Given the declining labour force due to population ageing, accelerating the productivity growth of industries – especially the service industries – is an important element of the growth strategy in Japan and most advanced countries. While there are a variety of factors affecting productivity, innovation is one of the key determinants of productivity growth. However, innovation in the service sector has not been studied well. I present findings on innovation in the service sector by focusing on the effect of intellectual property rights on innovation.

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Topics:  Productivity and Innovation

Tags:  R&D, growth, productivity, patents, Japan, innovation, services, intellectual property, trade secrets

Connecting Brazil to the world

Patricia Ellen, Jaana Remes 12 July 2014

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Despite a decade of rapid growth and falling poverty rates, Brazil has failed to match the global average for income growth – let alone to achieve the kind of impressive gains posted by other rapidly transforming emerging economies. As of 2012, Brazil had become the world’s seventh-largest economy, but it ranked only 95th in the world for gross national income per capita (IHS Economics and Country Risk data). To raise household living standards, Brazil needs to find a new formula for accelerating productivity growth.

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Topics:  Development International trade Productivity and Innovation

Tags:  development, growth, productivity, globalisation, MERCOSUR, trade, openness, Brazil, global value chains

Growing through cities in India

Ejaz Ghani, William Kerr, Ishani Tewari 11 July 2014

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Urbanisation and development are tightly linked (Duranton and Puga 2013). Developing countries are urbanising at a much faster pace than developed countries. For instance, China’s and India’s economic transformation and urbanisation is happening at 100 times the scale of the first country in the world to urbanise – the UK – and in just one-tenth of the time.

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Topics:  Development

Tags:  growth, India, urbanisation

Institutions, trade shocks, and regional differences in long-run educational and development trajectories

André Carlos Martínez, Aldo Musacchio, Martina Viarengo 09 July 2014

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Understanding the determinants of long-run socio-economic development is a major concern for academics and policymakers in many countries around the world. In particular, beyond understanding differences in development or educational and other outcomes across countries, the origins of within-country inequality are now a fundamental issue, given the impact inequality has on the long-run prosperity of nations.

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Topics:  Development Economic history Education

Tags:  development, education, growth, institutions, Inequality, Brazil, colonialism, trade shocks, extractive institutions

The Great Recession’s long-term damage

Laurence Ball 01 July 2014

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According to macroeconomics textbooks, a fall in aggregate demand causes a recession in which output drops below potential output – the normal level of production given the economy’s resources and technology. This effect is temporary, however. A recession is followed by a recovery period in which output returns to potential, and potential itself is not affected significantly by the recession.

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Topics:  Global crisis

Tags:  growth, unemployment, OECD, potential output, Great Recession, hysteresis

Has the Great Recession harmed the long-term growth prospects of the Eurozone economy?

Philippe Weil interviewed by Viv Davies,

Date Published

Fri, 06/20/2014

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See Also

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (2014), "Eurozone mired in recession pause", VoxEU.org, 17 June.

CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee (2014), "Euro Area Mired in Recession Pause", www.cepr.org, 11 June.

 

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Topics

Europe's nations and regions Global crisis
Tags
eurozone, growth, GDP, recession, business cycles, CEPR, trough, business cycle dating, expansion, peak

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