Ruben Durante, Milena Djourelova, 17 November 2019

It is often suspected that pDo politicians strategically time controversial announcementspolicies to avoid public scrutiny.? We presentThe column uses  evidence from a systematic analysis of the timing of executive orders issued by US presidents to showthat this suspicion, in this case, is correct.  and its relationship with the news cycle. We find that Ppresidents tend to issue executive orders,  - especially those that are more likely to generate negative publicity, at the same time as  - in coincidence with other important events that distract the media and the public.

Michael Geruso, Timothy J. Layton, Grace McCormack, Mark Shepard, 16 November 2019

Sicker consumers tend to exhibit higher demand for health insurance, which drives up costs. This column argues that this adverse selection takes place along two margins: whether to buy insurance at all and how much coverage to buy, It develops a new framework that incorporates both selection margins, and shows that policies aimed at addressing one margin can often exacerbate selection along the other. It is therefore vital for optimal policy to consider both margins simultaneously. 

Francesco D'Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Michael Weber, 15 November 2019

Policymakers seek to manage inflation expectations, but we understand little about how households form and update their expectations of inflation. The column tests Lucas's conjecture that the price changes households observe, rather than all price changes, drive expectations. A measure of individual household consumption weighted by the frequency of purchase is a statistically and economically significant driver of households' expectations. This challenges the modelling assumptions that central bank policymakers currently make.

Adam Brzezinski, Yao Chen, Nuno Palma, Felix Ward, 14 November 2019

During the early 16th to 19th centuries, Spain received large amounts of monetary silver from its colonies in America. Vagaries of the sea thus affected Spain’s money supply. This column investigates the effects of money supply shocks on the economy using the case of maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire. It finds that a one-percentage-point reduction in the money growth rate caused a 1.3% drop in real output that persisted for several years. Analysing monetary transmission channels, it shows that price rigidities and credit frictions account for most of this non-neutrality result.

Mark Harrison, 14 November 2019

Economic warfare was widely used in WWII. When one country blockaded another’s supply of essential goods or bombed the industries producing them, why did the adversary’s economy fail to collapse? This column, part of the Vox debate on the economics of WWII, reviews Mançur Olson’s insights, which arose from the elementary economic concept of substitution. He concluded that there are no essential goods; there are only essential uses, which can generally be supplied in many ways.

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