So-called experts make predictions about prospects for UK after Brexit as if we can plan for the future using known statistical probabilities, but no one knows what the consequences will be relative to staying in the EU in 15 years’ time. The one thing that will get us into trouble, though, is being ‘sure’ about predictions that might be plain wrong.

Two widely used indicators of financial risk, the VIX index and the ECB’s CISS, are at a historical low. As this post explains, however, provided we only worry about the immediate future, and then only care to measure the easily visible, our favourite risk indicators will tell us everything is fine even if the longer-term political uncertainty appears high.