Maurizio Michael Habib, Fabrizio Venditti, 05 July 2019

There is a global cycle in capital flows that is intimately connected to global risk. This column argues that, contrary to common wisdom, US monetary policy is not the only factor, or even the main factor, behind global risk and this global cycle. Financial shocks matter more than US monetary policy. Domestic policies may still mitigate the cycle of global capital flows at the country level.

Beatrice Scheubel, Livio Stracca, Cédric Tille, 26 April 2019

More than ten years on from the start of the Global Crisis, policymakers are discussing the effectiveness of the global financial safety net – the combination of reserves, central bank swap lines, regional financial arrangements, and the IMF. This column evaluates the effectiveness of the use of IMF support and foreign reserves in globally driven crises. It finds that actual use of IMF support helps during currency crises – the type of crisis for which the support was originally designed. Use of reserves is of limited effectiveness and only during sudden stops. 

Hélène Rey, 23 April 2018

There are significant commonalities between the movements of credit aggregates, credit flows, and asset prices - referred to as the global financial cycle. Helene Rey explains how this cycle is impacted by US monetary policy. Raising interest rates by the Fed will tighten credit in dollar-dependent economies, leading to capital outflows. To withstand such impact, policymakers must employ macroprudential tools to hit their domestic targets.

Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Tomás Williams, 20 March 2018

The share of fund assets held in exchange-traded funds has risen from 3.5% in 2005 to 14% in 2017, and to 20% for funds in emerging market assets. This column uses reported investor flows to argue that this is related to increased exposure of aggregate portfolio equity capital inflows to global risk. On this evidence, exchange-traded fund flows amplify the global financial cycle.

Andrew Rose, 14 August 2017

Policymakers in small countries fear the ‘global financial cycle’ that is apparently driven by US fundamentals. This column argues, in contrast, that 25 years of financial data show that the global financial cycle has explained at most a quarter of the variation in capital flows in these countries. This result gives more wiggle room for small-economy policymakers, but it also means they cannot realistically blame the global financial cycle for domestic economic problems.

Hélène Rey, 31 August 2013

The global financial cycle has transformed the well-known trilemma into a ‘dilemma’. Independent monetary policies are possible if and only if the capital account is managed directly or indirectly. This column argues the right policies to deal with the ‘dilemma’ should aim at curbing excessive leverage and credit growth. A combination of macroprudential policies guided by aggressive stress‐testing and tougher leverage ratios are needed. Some capital controls may also be useful.


CEPR Policy Research