Francesco Furlanetto, Ørjan Robstad, Pål Ulvedal, Antoine Lepetit, 09 November 2020

Modern macroeconomic models imply that demand factors have only a small transitory effect, if any, on the productive capacity of the economy. By extending the econometric framework proposed by Blanchard and Quah, this column enables fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity through hysteresis effects. It finds that these demand shocks are quantitatively important in the US, in particular if the Great Recession is included in the sample. More specifically, demand-driven recessions lead to a persistent decline in employment and investment but leave labour productivity largely unaffected.

Richard Baldwin, 29 May 2020

Has Covid accelerated the future of work? This column argues that Covid has changed the future of work via four shocks: massive job losses, massive digital transformations, massive debt burdens, and massive costs of socially distanced office space. These matter in two ways. First, due to sunk cost hysteresis, re-hiring workers is very different than retaining workers. Second, the digital transformations, office-space costs, and debt burdens will push firms to replace domestic workers with ‘telemigrants’ or ‘white-collar robots’. The jobs that return will be those that require face-to-face interactions and involve tasks that AI cannot handle. 

Valerie Cerra, Antonio Fatás, Sweta C. Saxena, 14 May 2020

As many countries enter deep economic downturns, many wonder about the shape and length of the recession, as well as the steepness of the recovery. Past recessions have left permanent scars on long-term growth, known as hysteresis. This column reviews the hysteresis academic literature to gain insights on the current crisis and the policies that should be put in place to minimise its long-term effects. Continued macroeconomic stimulus, where policy space exists, is needed using an array of instruments. Now is not the time to err on the side of caution when it comes to expansionary economic policies.

Antonio Fatás, 28 September 2018

The damage done by procyclical fiscal policy in the euro area between 2010 and 2014 is likely to be even larger than previous studies have suggested. The column argues that fiscal policymakers at the time created a 'doom loop', with unfounded pessimism feeding into policy, and the consequences of those policies increasing pessimism. This has created hysteresis, permanently reducing GDP. 

Tolga Aksoy, Paolo Manasse, 23 March 2018

After 2008, labour markets in the euro area responded differently to the recessions and subsequent labour market reforms. This column uses data from 19 countries to show that labour and product market reforms speeded up the recovery from recession, but also reduced the resilience of employment to shocks. Because the resilience effect occurs first, deep reforms risk losing public support.

Tamim Bayoumi, Barry Eichengreen, 27 March 2017

Asymmetric aggregate supply and demand disturbances across its regions prevent the smooth functioning of a currency union. This column argues that the disturbances in peripheral regions of the US show more symmetry with those in the anchor region than is the case for the Eurozone. Moreover, disturbances to the GIPPS, which previously were in Europe’s periphery, have become more correlated with disturbances to the anchor (Germany) compared to other Eurozone countries. Hysteresis operating via the financial sector may provide an explanation for this development.

Antonio Fatás, Lawrence H. Summers, 12 October 2016

Conventional wisdom on supply and demand suggests that demand shocks are cyclical or transitory, and that only technology shocks are responsible for trend changes. This column argues that cyclical events can have permanent effects on demand, and therefore GDP. It is time for policymakers to start considering the possibility of hysteresis seriously.

Lawrence H. Summers, Antonio Fatás, 25 October 2015

The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Using data seven years after the beginning of the crisis as well as estimates on potential output our analysis suggests that attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their negative impact on output.  Our results provide support for the possibility of self-defeating fiscal consolidations in depressed economies as developed by DeLong and Summers (2012).

Laurence Ball, 01 July 2014

Whereas textbook macroeconomic theory suggests that output should return to potential after a recession, there is mounting evidence that deep recessions have highly persistent effects on output. This column reports estimates of the long-term damage caused by the Great Recession. In most countries in the sample, the loss of potential output – 8.4% on average – has been almost as large as the loss of actual output. In the countries hit hardest by the recession, the growth rate of potential output is much lower today than it was before 2008.

Richard Dorsett, 21 November 2013

Individuals moving from long-term unemployment into work face a number of challenges. This column discusses the use of temporary in-work support during this transition. Recent experimental evidence has shown the potential for such support to have a positive long-term effect. It can increase not only employment entry but also employment retention, and so may provide a means of addressing the low pay, no pay cycle.

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