Barry Eichengreen, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Kenneth Rogoff, 10 May 2022

The first of CEPR’s Rapid Response Economics series spells out a proposal to ensure that the economy of post-war Ukraine can recover. But what can the international community do, and how much will it cost?

Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, 10 May 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced millions of Ukrainian children to leave their schools and homes. Such adverse shocks early in life can have profound long-term effects. This column presents evidence from WWII and the Vietnam War of how childhood war exposure had detrimental effects on education, physical and mental health, and labour market outcomes, even decades after the conflicts. The effects were most pronounced for girls and children of lower socioeconomic status. Policies that prioritise children are essential to reduce the enduring effects of war.

Anna Pestova, Mikhail Mamonov, Steven Ongena, 15 April 2022

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the US, Europe, and many other countries imposed new economic sanctions on Russia. This column assesses the economic effects of these sanctions using a structural vector auto-regression model of the Russian economy. The findings suggest that industrial production, consumption, and investment will all decline, and that Russian GDP will contract by -12.5% to -16.5% in 2022. Nevertheless, the Russian economy will continue to rely on its existing export model, which may be difficult to undermine, even with potential oil and gas embargoes. 

Patricia Justino, 14 April 2022

The current and future civilian impacts of the war in Ukraine are immense. This column argues that the levels of vulnerability and resistance of civilians in wartime depend on three factors: the nature of violence during the war causing economic, psychological, and social disruption; the effectiveness of coping strategies employed by civilians, which depend on both economic needs and targeting by the enemy; and civilians’ own agency to both resist and shape the behaviour of armed forces. The Ukraine war is causing unmeasurable civilian suffering, but civilians may nonetheless shape the course of the conflict.

Sascha O. Becker, 08 April 2022

Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine: forced migration is constantly in the news, but these events have been happening for hundreds of years. Sascha Becker tells Tim Phillips about new research that is discovering the economic impact of mass displacement in history, both on refugees and on communities – and the lessons we can learn from the past.

Richard Baldwin, Rebecca Freeman, 06 April 2022

Supply disruptions caused by systemic shocks such as Brexit, Covid, and Russia-Ukraine tensions have catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains to the top of policy agendas. In some sectors, however, there is a wedge between private and social risk appetite, or increased risks due to lack of supply chain visibility. This column discusses the types of risks to and from supply chains, and how supply chains have recovered from past shocks. It then proposes a risk-reward framework for thinking about when policy interventions are necessary.

Viktor Tsyrennikov, 06 April 2022

Since Russia’s full-scale offensive began in late February 2022, many civilians have died and Ukraine has suffered massive destruction of its infrastructure. This column attempts to put a figure to the economic damage suffered by Ukraine by comparing its growth path to that of similar Eastern European countries. It estimates that the combined effect of Russia’s 2014 invasion and the current war will cause damage in the region of $1.36 trillion to the Ukrainian economy. And unless there is a large spur in Ukraine’s growth potential, these losses will continue to grow for several year.

Erhan Artuc, Guillermo Falcone, Guido Porto, Bob Rijkers, 01 April 2022

The conflict in Ukraine has led to a surge in food prices, particularly wheat and corn. This column uses a newly developed toolkit to analyse the welfare impacts of food price inflation on households in developing countries. Average household welfare decreases in 43 of 53 countries in the sample, with an average real income loss of -1.5%. This impact varies substantially both across and within countries, with poorer households suffering systematically larger welfare losses. Protracted price increases will have long-term consequences for prosperity in many of these countries, exacerbating issues of poverty and inequality.

Sascha O. Becker, 29 March 2022

Millions of people have fled Ukraine as a result of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. This column argues that the massive refugee flow requires a united response from European countries, including the UK. Beyond providing shelter and food, it emphasises the importance of access to education for refugees. Episodes of forced migration following WWII underscore the importance of human capital accumulation. Ultimately, providing timely access to education can be a silver lining of forced migration, allowing refugees to invest in a brighter future. 

Pauline Grosjean, 28 March 2022

Conflict durably shapes how individuals view the state and interact with each other. This column uses data from more than 35,000 individuals in 35 countries to show how conflict victimisation in WWII left a negative imprint on levels of political trust throughout Europe and Central Asia that has persisted over generations. The author also finds a lasting impact of pre-WWI empires on political trust and democratic capital that varies even across regions that have since been integrated into the same country. The findings have implications for Ukraine, a country that experienced both a divided history and some of the highest victimisation rates in WWII. 

Tommaso Frattini, Irene Solmone, 30 March 2022

More than three million Ukrainians have left their country since the start of the war on 24 February. Due to mandatory conscription of men in Ukraine, the majority of these refugees are women and children. This column explores the labour market integration of immigrant women in Europe using data from the past two decades. It shows that immigrant women face a double disadvantage determined by both their gender and immigration status, and their labour market outcomes have not improved over time. These disadvantages should be considered when designing policies to increase labour market participation and success. 

Mark Harrison, 25 March 2022

Economic warfare, including blockades of essential goods and bombings of industry, was widely used in WWII but with limited impact. This column explores Mançur Olson’s explanation, which is underpinned by the elementary economic concept of substitution. Olson argued that there are no essential goods; there are only essential uses, which can generally be supplied in many ways. This has sweeping implications for the use of economic sanctions, which can be applied to the present context of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Eric Chaney, Christian Gollier, Thomas Philippon, Richard Portes, 22 March 2022

The financial and economic sanctions so far imposed on Russia to force it to end its invasion of Ukraine have not yet had the desired impact. This column argues that cutting off the financing of the Russian aggression is essential and requires immediately banning imports of Russian oil and taxing imports of Russian gas, while cushioning the shock of these measures on households, especially those with low incomes.

Richard Berner, Stephen Cecchetti, Kim Schoenholtz, 21 March 2022

The sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine are the most powerful and costly punishments imposed on a major economy at least since the Cold War. This column poses and provisionally answers a series of questions raised by the sanction regime, covering issues such as secondary sanctions, Russia’s supposed ‘war chest’ of currency reserves, the roles of SWIFT and crypto, Russia’s options for retaliation, and the potential for systemic risk arising from the sanctions and any retaliation.

Dennis Snower, 21 March 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have laid the old world order to rest. This column argues that we now stand at a crossroads. To guide us to a Benign Anthropocene that mobilises a transnational collective spirit for addressing the major global problems of our time – instead of a Toxic Anthropocene marked by deglobalisation, a collapse of global collective action, retreat into nationalisms, environmental collapse, and the rising danger of large wars – we need to ensure that the narratives underlying our actions are constructive, rather than destructive.

Sergei Guriev, 14 March 2022

Sanctions against Russia continue to multiply. What will their effect be on the Russian state and its people?
Part of a series of commentaries on the economic consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.

Pascal Seiler, 12 March 2022

Until recently, central banks such as the ECB and the Swiss National Bank considered the current rise in inflation to be temporary, albeit more persistent than expected. This column uses survey data from Switzerland and a quasi-experimental research design to show that companies’ long-term inflation expectations have increased significantly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially in manufacturing. In this sector, higher energy and commodity prices prove particularly important in motivating price increases. These findings add to concerns about de-anchored inflation expectations and, as a result, more persistent inflationary pressures.

Jon Danielsson, 11 March 2022

The cryptocurrency exchanges have only done what is legally required of them when sanctioning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, unlike the mainstream financial institutions whose restrictions on the Russians generally exceeds what is required by law. This column argues that the implications for the future of cryptocurrencies will be considerable.

Jon Danielsson, Charles Goodhart, Robert Macrae, 10 March 2022

The Western countries have sanctioned Russia in a way not applied to any globally integrated major power in over a century, ever since 1914. This column argues that there are lessons to be learned from the 1914 systemic crisis and that high inflation and government debt will make it difficult to contain a crisis today if one emerges. 

Maksym Chepeliev, Thomas Hertel, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 09 March 2022

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, most OECD countries have announced punishing sanctions against Russia. But the sanctions have so far failed to target Russia’s primary source of foreign exchange – exports of fossil fuels. This column argues that while the short-term impact of restricting Russia’s fossil fuel exports on EU households’ real income would be non-trivial, the longer-term cost would be more modest and would be offset by considerable environment co-benefits. Meanwhile, the adverse impacts on the Russian economy would be overwhelming.

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