Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? The 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy

Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin, Vincent Reinhart 29 September 2014



Table of contents

1 Introduction

1.1 Motivation and main conclusions
1.2 Leverage: What we mean by it and why it matters
1.3 Guide to the report

2 Global debt analysis: Deleveraging? What deleveraging?

3 Leverage cycles and the poisonous combination of rising leverage and slowing growth

3.1 Leverage cycles and debt capacity
3.2 A poisonous combination of high leverage and slower output
Appendix 3A: The Leverage cycle
Appendix 3B: Debt capacity

4 Case studies

4.1 The United States
4.2 Eurozone: A policy problem
4.3 Emerging markets: The next crisis?

5 Policy issues 75

5.1 What have we learnt from past crises?
5.2 Policy options. Where are we now?

6 Discussions

Morning discussion
Afternoon discussion

Head of Global Strategy, Brevan Howard Asset Management

Governor, Central Bank of Ireland; Whately Professor of Political Economy, Trinity College Dublin (on leave); CEPR Research Fellow

Professor of Economics, London Business School; Chair European Corporate Governance Institute; CEPR Research Fellow and trustee; IFRS Foundation trustee (chair steering committee sustainability reporting); Fellow of the British Academy; Fellow of the Econometric Society

Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute


CEPR Policy Research