The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?

Bernard Hoekman 24 June 2015

The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.

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Part One: Introduction

Trade and growth – end of an era?
Bernard Hoekman

1 World trade and production: A long-run view
Douglas A Irwin

Part Two: Determinants of the slowdown

2 The global trade slowdown
Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta

3 Recent slowdown in global trade: Cyclical or structural?
Emine Boz, Matthieu Bussière and Clément Marsilli

4 Does the post-Crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?
Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus

5 The power of the few in determining trade accelerations and slowdowns
Guillaume Gaulier, Gianluca Santoni, Daria Taglioni and Soledad Zignago

Part Three: GVCs, gravity and peak trade

6 Global value chains and the trade-income relationship: Implications for the recent trade slowdown
Byron Gangnes, Alyson C Ma and Ari Van Assche

7 World trade and income remain exposed to gravity
Hubert Escaith and Sébastien Miroudot

8 A value-added trade perspective on recent patterns in world trade
Paul Veenendaal, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Arjan Lejour and Henk Kox

9 On the gravity of world trade’s slowdown
Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Sébastien Jean

Part Four: East Asian perspectives and the China factor

10 The relationship between trade and economic growth and a slowdown of exports in Korea
Taeho Bark

11 Growth and structural change in trade: Evidence from Japan
Koji Ito and Ryuhei Wakasugi

12 The global trade slowdown: Lessons from the East Asian electronics industry
Willem Thorbecke

13 China’s trade flows: Some conjectures
Menzie D Chinn

14 Trade impact of China’s transition to the ‘new normal’
Jiansuo Pei, Cuihong Yang and Shunli Yao

Part Five: Policy perspectives

15 Crisis-era trade distortions cut LDC export growth by 5.5% per annum
Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz

16 Trade growth prospects: An African perspective
Ottavia Pesce, Stephen Karingi and Isabelle Gebretensaye

17 ‘Peak trade’ in the steel sector
Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz

18 Supporting the micro-multinationals to help achieve peak trade
Usman Ahmed, Brian Bieron and Hanne Melin

19 Bold political leadership and vision can unlock global trade growth
Amgad Shehata

Bernard Hoekman

Professor and Director of Global Economics, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute; Research Fellow, CEPR

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