Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design

Robert Shiller, Jonathan D. Ostry, James Benford 16 March 2018

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Table of Contents

Foreword
Andy Haldane and Maurice Obstfeld

Introduction
Robert J. Shiller

Part I: Rationale

1 Overcoming the obstacles to adoption of GDP-linked debt
Eduardo Borensztein, Maurice Obstfeld, and Jonathan D. Ostry

2 Sovereign GDP-linked bonds: Pros and cons
James Benford and Fernando Eguren-Martin

3 On the role of GDP-linked debt in expanding fiscal space
Jonathan D. Ostry and Jun I. Kim

4 Debt limits and the structure of public debt
Alex Pienkowski

Part II: Design

5 Could performance-linked lending have helped in the euro crisis? Could it still?
Patrick Honohan

6 Sovereign GDP-linked bonds: Design choices
Mark Joy

7 A Term Sheet for GDP-linked bonds
Yannis Manuelides and Peter Crossan

8 GDP-linked securities: Designing instruments for a new asset class
Christian Kopf

9 The case for GDP-linked sukuk
Arshadur Rahman

10 GDP-linked or similar instruments in sovereign debt restructurings
Mark A. Walker

 

Part III: Market Development

11 Estimating GDP-linked bonds’ volatility risk premiums
Joel Bowman and Kevin Lane

12 Credit ratings and the new market for GDP-linked bonds
David T. Beers

13 Applying lessons from past innovations to build consensus on the London Term Sheet
Starla Griffin

14 Making a reality of GDP-linked bonds
Stephany Griffith-Jones

Annex:

Indicative Term Sheet — GDP bonds
London Term Sheet (English law version)

Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University; Professor of Finance and Fellow at the International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management

Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF

Head of Division, Bank of England

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CEPR Policy Research