Manthos Delis, Kathrin de Greiff, Steven Ongena, 27 May 2018

Neglecting the possibility that fossil fuel reserves can become ‘stranded’ could result in a ‘carbon bubble’ as fossil fuel firms become overvalued. This column studies whether banks price the climate policy risk of fossil fuel firms. Prior to 2015, banks did not appear to price climate policy risk. After 2015, however, the risk is priced to a certain extent, especially for firms holding more fossil fuel reserves.

Adrien Vogt-Schilb, Guy Meunier, Stéphane Hallegatte, 29 March 2018

Traditional climate economics models recommend capturing the cheapest opportunities to reduce emissions first and keeping the most difficult options for later. This column argues that when the fact that reducing emissions takes time and requires investments in long-lived goods and assets is taken into account, the most cost efficient strategy overall is to act immediately in the sectors that are the most expensive and difficult to decarbonise, even if this means investing in options that have a higher cost right now than available alternatives. Actions on urban planning and urban transport systems are especially urgent.

Rick van der Ploeg, Armon Rezai, 05 January 2018

Trump’s election has brought climate change deniers to the centre of global policymaking. This column uses Pascal’s wager as a model to explore optimal policy given uncertainty over the fundamental causes of global warming. This agnostic approach finds that assigning even a high probability to climate change deniers being correct has insignificant effects on policy. Pricing carbon is shown to be optimal in either case, and robust to whether policymakers want to maximise global welfare, or minimise regret in the worst case.

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Aditya Pande, 24 September 2017

The motor vehicle was very quick to replace horses in the early 20th century, and the advent of the electric car suggests that another profound shift in transportation and energy could be around the corner. This column projects how different rates of electric car adoption will effect oil demand and consumption over the next three decades. In a fast-adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of current coal prices by the early 2040s. Even under a slow adoption scenario, oil could become obsolete before it is depleted.

Eli P Fenichel, Matthew Kotchen, Ethan T Addicott, 20 August 2017

How the future is discounted in cost-benefit analyses is a contested issue, with economists disagreeing on whether approaches to discounting should be prescriptive or descriptive. This column presents a new way to model individuals’ discounting based on a demographic approach. The advantages of a purely mortality-based approach are transparency, an empirical basis, and broad data availability.

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