EU institutions

Maarten Verwey, Allen Monks, 21 October 2021

On 19 October 2021, the European Commission adopted a Communication relaunching the public consultation on the EU’s economic governance framework. This consultation had been put on hold in March 2020 in order to focus on the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commission communication assesses the implications of the changed circumstances for economic governance following the COVID-19 crisis and sets out additional questions for the public debate. All stakeholders are invited to engage in the debate, which must be wide-ranging and inclusive to build a consensus on the way forward well in time for 2023.

Lucile Crumpton, Ethan Ilzetzki, 14 October 2021

In July, the ECB issued its first Strategic Review since 2003. The latest CfM-CEPR survey investigates one component of the announced policy shift: the new definition of price stability. Most members of the panel of experts on the European economy support the ECB explicitly allowing inflation to exceed its target for extended periods to make up for below-target inflation in the past. This 60% majority has divided views on the optimal alternative policies, with the largest share supporting average inflation targeting and some members supporting nominal GDP targeting or hybrid policies. 40% of the panel would prefer to maintain the current policy of traditional inflation targeting.  

Marco Buti, Marcello Messori, 13 October 2021

The way European policymakers solve the policy mix trilemma of asymmetric fiscal rules, no central fiscal capacity and constrained monetary policy in the post-pandemic economy will define the resilience of the euro area in the face of future shocks and the transition to a more sustainable growth model. In a new CEPR Policy Insight, the authors argue that moving to a structured vertical coordination between national and EU budgets would help ensure an adequate fiscal stance and avoid the overburdening of the single monetary policy.    

Willi Koll, Andrew Watt, 10 September 2021

Inflation in the euro area has been well below the ECB’s target since 2013. This column proposes institutionalising nominal wage setting within the economic governance of the euro area to bring inflation on target. Such a policy would also address the built-in tendency for divergences in internal demand dynamics and competitiveness within the euro area. 

Randolph Bruno, Nauro Campos, Saul Estrin, 17 July 2021

Do different economic integration arrangements vary in terms of their capacity to attract foreign direct investment? This column uses a structural gravity framework on annual bilateral FDI data for 142 countries between 1985 and 2018 to revisit this question. It finds that deep integration in the form of EU membership increases FDI by about 60% from outside the EU and by about 50% from within the EU. The effect of EU membership on FDI appears to be significantly larger than that from the less deep integration arrangements (EFTA, NAFTA, or MERCOSUR), with the Single Market the cornerstone of this differential impact. 

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