Exchange rates

Konstantin Egorov, Dmitry Mukhin, 19 November 2021

Recent evidence shows that most international prices are set in dollars, leading to highly asymmetric spillovers between the US and other economies. This column discusses the normative implications of this fact. The authors argue that inflation targeting is optimal in non-US economies, while the use of capital controls is not. A depreciation of the dollar is unlikely to cause a currency war, but US policy does not fully internalise global spillovers. The US benefits from the dominant status of its currency.      

Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot Müller, Ben Schumann, 17 November 2021

In times of heightened global risk, investors flock to the dollar as their capacity or willingness to bear risk declines. As a result, the dollar appreciates. This column examines the effects of global risk shocks and the dollar’s role in the international adjustment to such shocks, finding that appreciation of the dollar amplifies the adverse effect of global risk shocks considerably. Policies that stabilise the dollar in the face of global risk, such as the liquidity provision by the Federal Reserve in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, can help stabilise global economic activity.

Avinash Persaud, 10 November 2021

John Williamson, one of the icons of international economics, passed away in April 2021. This column outlines some of his many and varied contributions to economic analysis and economic policymaking. In his work on exchange rates, the international monetary system and the challenges of economic crises, transition and development, he was the consummate problem-solver and understood any problem in the round of politics, economics and institutions. 

Elena Bobeica, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Gerhard Rünstler, Georg Strasser, 31 October 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic shock, new shifting economic trends, and revisions in monetary policy by major central banks make macroeconomic forecasting a challenging task. This column reviews advancements in forecasting techniques that were discussed at the ECB’s 11th Conference on Forecasting Techniques, dedicated to “forecasting in abnormal times”. Researchers are currently advancing primarily on two fronts – either by sheltering linear models against extreme events or explicitly modelling the dynamics of the latter. New approaches and methods are rapidly developing, partly inspired by big data and machine learning techniques.

Peter Robertson, 09 October 2021

US military spending is said to be greater than the next 11 countries combined. However, the conventional use of market exchange rates to compare across countries dramatically overstates US spending relative to other countries. This column introduces a military purchasing power parity exchange rate for 59 countries based on the relative unit cost ratio across counties. This ‘military PPP’ shows that the US military budget in 2019 was smaller than that of the next three largest military spenders – China, India, and Russia – combined.

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