Financial markets

Kam Chan, Terry Marsh, 03 April 2020

The lockdowns in place around the world will result in substantial economic collateral damage. This column looks at stock market reactions prior to and after six prominent historical crises. Equity market prices like the Dow Index are negatively impacted by increases in uncertainty. The business ramifications of regulatory policies, subsidies and so on put in place to contain the spread of COVID-19 posing the greatest uncertainty in the current crisis.

Antonio De Vito, Juan-Pedro Gomez, 29 March 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has endangered the liquidity position of not only SME firms, but also large listed firms. This column uses firm-level data from 26 countries to study how long it may take for these listed firms to become cash constrained, and what kind of interventions would be most effective. It concludes that while bridge loans would cost governments almost twice as much as a six-month tax deferral, the policy seems justified given the higher efficacy in preventing a global cash crunch. 

Enrico Perotti, 27 March 2020

Enrico Perotti tells Tim Phillips that while regulatory reform means that banks are unlikely to be at risk, the coronavirus shock poses a serious liquidity risk for the shadow banking sector, where significant funding has been extended on the basis of cash flow rather than real collateral. Avoiding financial panic is key, and will require liquidity support as well as targeted fiscal measures.

Enrico Perotti, 27 March 2020

Years of quantitative easing by the ECB have suppressed sovereign yields to historic lows. This has contributed to a shadow banking boom, as market participants invested heavily in various private asset constructions. This column argues that the coronavirus shock poses a serious liquidity risk for the shadow banking sector, where significant funding has been extended on the basis of cash flow rather than real collateral. Avoiding financial panic is key, and will require liquidity support as well as targeted fiscal measures. 

Niels Joachim Gormsen, Ralph Koijen, 23 March 2020

The economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and the preventive measures adopted around the world, are still largely unknown. In addition, standard macroeconomic models based on fundamentals may be slow to adapt in this fast-changing environment. This column uses high-frequency data on dividend futures to evaluate the impact on growth expectations. Dividend growth and GDP growth expectations in the US and EU begin to deteriorate after the lockdown in Italy, and these effects are exacerbated by the travel restrictions imposed thereafter. The lower bound on dividend growth is as severe as during the Global Crisis, at least in the short run.

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