Global economy

Cathérine Casanova, Beatrice Scheubel, Livio Stracca, 04 June 2021

Since the Global Crisis, the channels of capital flows have changed significantly. This column analyses key trends and underlying drivers of capital flows since the Global Crisis, including the policy trade-offs. It documents the increasing importance of market-based funding, a growing reliance on domestic currency liabilities, and a less stable foreign direct investment environment, particularly for emerging market economies. Although these changes create risks which should be managed, capital flows also present clear benefits for stimulating economic performance and efficiency. 

Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri, 18 May 2021

The latest update of the World Uncertainty Index indicates that global uncertainty has fallen back to its long-run average after reaching a historical high in 2020. This column describes how this is driven by a significant decline in two key drivers of global uncertainty over the last few years: US–China trade tensions and Brexit negotiations. A sub-index of the World Uncertainty Index, the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index, reveals that uncertainty related to COVID-19 is also starting to subside, especially in developed countries where vaccines rollout has started to pick up. Given this, and because US–China trade and Brexit tensions impacted developed countries more, the authors observe a more salient decline in uncertainty in developed countries than in developing ones.

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Bolton, 21 April 2021

Ensuring that developing countries remain able to access credit markets is vital for promoting growth and recovery post-pandemic. This column argues that urgent efforts by major economies to support regional development banks and preserve their financial standing will help limit the cost of rebuilding after the crisis, in turn helping preserve international capital markets in the short and medium run.  

Avinash Persaud, 01 April 2021

The servicing and rolling over of the public and private debt of middle-income countries is a major point of COVID-19-induced stress in the global economy. The G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative is a worthy initiative, but it does not address this issue. This column outlines three related steps that may help avoid a crisis. The centre-piece is recycling new and unused Special Drawing Rights for debt reduction through the repayment or repurchase of debt. Moral hazard can be addressed by reducing only those debts held by official creditors and up to an amount equal to fiscal expenditures relating to natural disasters – COVID-19 and climate change, principal amongst them.  

Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 18 March 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic is the first time in history that closing entire economies has been used as a medical tool, simultaneously and worldwide. This column argues that such ‘pandonomics’ cannot be repeated during future pandemics that are sure to come – the costs are too heavy. Since lockdowns are very costly, future economic non-pharmaceutical interventions need to be designed more intelligently, helping the economy to restructure and support the transition from a basically ignorant and domestically oriented society into a pandemic-aware one.

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