International trade

Gene Grossman, 11 January 2019

It blows the minds of economists when voters choose protectionist policies that, they point out, make most of them poorer. Gene Grossman tells Tim Phillips how trade models can explain this, if they incorporate insights from other social sciences.

David Comerford, Sevi Rodriguez Mora, 04 January 2019

Populists in Europe are contesting the perceived benefits of economic integration between countries. This column uses data on trade frictions to estimate the long-run impact of trade frictions on GDP if countries in Europe were to be more or less integrated. Negative between-country impacts, such as from Brexit or an EU collapse, imply a GDP reduction of between 1-3%. The potential trade benefits of a 'United States of Europe', on the other hand, may be an order of magnitude greater for its members.

Maarten Bosker, Bastian Westbrock, 04 January 2019

Much has been written about the opportunities and threats arising from the international fragmentation of production processes. This column introduces a novel theoretical approach to track down the different, sometimes conflicting, ways in which shocks spread through global value chains. It suggests that what matters most is not a country's access to the technologies and markets of its direct trading partners, but its exposure to changes in the larger production network.

Marvin Suesse, 17 December 2018

While much has been written on why states disintegrate, we know little about the consequences of state breakup. Using data from the breakup of the Soviet Union, this column studies the short-run economic costs of its collapse. It demonstrates how political disintegration can lead to the dissolution of trade links, and to a correspondingly large fall in output. In the Soviet case, this mechanism helps to explain the disappointing performance of its successor states in the 1990s. The uncertainty surrounding secessions is an important driver of the fall in present output.

Alexis Antoniades, Sofronis Clerides, 16 December 2018

Understanding how firms respond to demand shocks has important insights on firm and consumer behaviour. To date, firm responses have been mostly been examined in isolation. This column uses scanner data to explore how Danish firms and their competitors responded to a boycott in ten Arab states in 2006. Results show that Danish firms responded on the intensive margin by lowering prices, while their competitors responded on the extensive margin by introducing new products.

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