Macroeconomic policy

Marcel Fratzscher, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Tobias Stöhr, 23 February 2018

Central bank interventions in foreign exchange markets have long been viewed with scepticism by academics. This column examines foreign exchange interventions for a sample of 33 advanced and developing economies. Interventions occur frequently, in episodes that can last several days, and are often successful in smoothing exchange rates. These results show that central bankers, particularly in emerging markets, appreciate the efficacy of interventions.

Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Berg, Siddharth Kothari, 19 February 2018

While there is consensus that structural reforms can increase growth, there is also a fear that certain reforms can exacerbate inequality. This column argues – based on a dataset covering financial, institutional, and real sector reforms – that certain reforms do indeed increase inequality but despite this, the net effect on growth remains positive.

M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Naotaka Sugawara, 12 February 2018

The availability of fiscal space has been at the centre of recent debates on the effective use of fiscal policy. This column introduces a new cross-country database of fiscal space indicators and applies it to the analysis of the evolution of fiscal space over the past quarter century and during oil price plunges. Fiscal space has weakened materially in many emerging and developing economies since the Global Crisis. Fiscal space tends to deteriorate in energy-exporting emerging and developing economies during oil price plunges but later improves, often because of procyclical fiscal tightening.

David Miles, Alan Taylor, Thomas Steger, Jagjit Chadha, 08 February 2018

Long-run trends in house prices are inextricably linked to growing inequality and other macroeconomic policy challenges. In this special edition of Vox Talks, Tim Phillips speaks to participants of the CEPR-Imperial College Business School conference, 'Housing – Learning from the past and looking to the future', which took place at Imperial College on 19th January 2018.

Marco Buti, Björn Döhring, José Leandro, 08 February 2018

The outlook for the euro area economy depends to a large extent on whether the impact of the crisis will turn out to be permanent or transitory. This column attempts to chart out the path ahead, starting from what different narratives of the 'atypical recovery' imply about the further trajectory of GDP and inflation. In view of remaining slack, and barring an exogenous shock or policy mistakes, there is scope for solid GDP growth above potential for some time. The factors that should eventually drive an increase in core inflation are gaining force, but only gradually.  The current supportive policy mix is thus appropriate for the euro area as a whole, but reforms that raise productivity and increase the economy's resilience to shocks should be accelerated.

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