Monetary policy

Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt, 12 November 2019

The alleged breakdown of the Phillips curve has left monetary policy researchers and central bankers wondering if we need to develop completely new models for price and wage determination. This column argues that a relatively small alteration of the standard New Keynesian model, combined with using the nonlinear instead of the linearised solution, is sufficient to resolve the two puzzles – the ‘missing deflation’ during the recession and the ‘missing inflation’ during the recovery – underlying the supposed breakdown.

Carlo Altavilla, Lorenzo Burlon, Mariassunta Giannetti, Sarah Holton, 08 November 2019

Economists and policymakers continue to question the effectiveness of monetary policy when an economy faces near-zero or sub-zero interest rates. Sceptics argue that central banks cannot stimulate lending, and may indeed decrease the loan supply, by setting negative interest rates. This column shows that negative rates do not impede the transmission of monetary policy from banks to deposit holders because firms do not withdraw cash in response to negative rates the way households might. In fact, sub-zero rates may even stimulate the economy by encouraging firms to invest.

Philipp Hartmann, Glenn Schepens, 06 November 2019

On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the euro, the experiences with EMU so far and crucial factors for its success going forward were at the core of ECB’s 2019 Sintra Forum on Central Banking. In this column two of the organisers highlight some of the main points from the discussions, including the diverse progress with economic convergence and how it may relate to the geographic agglomeration of industries, the role of fiscal policies relative to monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilisation in the still incomplete monetary union, and selected key determinants of future growth in the euro area. 

Thomas Mayer, 06 November 2019

The desire to avoid credit and investment boom-bust cycles has led some to advocate replacing money creation through bank credit extension with direct money issuance by the central bank or a private entity, or linking money to an existing asset. This column, part of the Vox debate on euro area reform, argues that relaunching the euro as digital central bank currency could help reduce the debt of the euro states and end the sovereign-bank doom loop. It would also create a formidable competitor for other global digital currencies likely to emerge in the intermediate future.

Francesco Corsello, Stefano Neri, Alex Tagliabracci, 05 November 2019

Concerns about the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations to the ECB Governing Council’s aim have re-emerged since early 2019. Using data from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, this column argues that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation objective. They have not returned to the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 period of disinflation, and their distribution is still skewed towards lower inflation levels. Moreover, long-term expectations have become sensitive to short-term ones and to negative inflation surprises. 

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