Monetary policy

Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, Mikael Juselius, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 18 October 2018

Has the decline in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates over the last 30 years been driven by variations in desired saving and investment, as commonly presumed? And is this a useful way of thinking about the determination of real interest rates more generally, at least over long horizons? This column finds that this is not the case by systematically examining the relationship between several saving-investment drivers and market real interest rates (as well as estimates of natural rates) since the 1870s and for 19 countries. By contrast, a clear and robust role for monetary policy regimes emerges. The analysis has significant implications for the notion of monetary neutrality and policymaking.

Matteo Leombroni, Andrea Vedolin, Gyuri Venter, Paul Whelan, 18 October 2018

It has been argued that central bank announcements can simultaneously convey both optimism and pessimism. This column explores the issue by looking at the effects of ECB communications on euro area bond yields. It finds direct evidence that monetary policy not only affects long-term rates through expectations of future short-term rates, but also by influencing the risk premia investors need in order to hold long-term bonds. 

Sayuri Shirai, 16 October 2018

The Bank of Japan has bought massive quantities of Japanese stocks in a bid to increase aggregate demand and inflation, and to encourage Japanese savers to take on more risk. This column surveys the effectiveness of this quantitative easing programme and identifies several key issues, including stock prices not rising in proportion to profits, the overvaluation of some small-cap stocks, and adverse impacts on corporate governance. It argues that before taking any steps toward monetary policy normalisation, the Bank of Japan should introduce flexibility in interpreting the 2% price stability target.

Jeffrey Frankel, 11 October 2018

In the US, unemployment is at its lowest point for two decades. Wage growth is rising, the economy is growing. Tim Phillips asks Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard University why he worries about the depth of the next recession.

James Hamilton, 12 October 2018

Quantitative easing policies have been used widely over the past decade. This column explores how markets responded to the announcements surrounding the three phases of the Fed’s quantitative easing operations. It also discusses a basic identification problem with high-frequency event studies, namely, that they cannot resolve whether the announcement mattered because it conveyed information about monetary policy or about economic fundamentals. 

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