Monetary policy

Siddharth Bhambhwani, Stefanos Delikouras, George Korniotis, 24 August 2019

We do not know which characteristics affect cryptocurrency prices, if any. The column argues that there are two fundamental factors that drive prices in the long run: the trustworthiness of the cryptocurrency’s blockchain and the adoption of the blockchain. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero are affected by these fundamentals. In some periods prices deviate, but eventually retrace the trend.

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 20 August 2019

India's demonetisation in 2016 reduced the volume of currency in circulation by 75% overnight. This column uses new data sources to quantify impacts on economic activity and credit growth after the unprecedented natural experiment. These effects can teach us about the short-run economic disruption and long-run benefits of demonetisation. 

Jon Danielsson, 06 August 2019

As central banks accumulate ever more job functions, their reputation risk increases. This column offers a cautionary tale from Iceland where, after the central bank was put in charge of capital controls, it was subject to severe attacks because of perceived mistakes in how the capital controls were enforced. The accumulation of powers erodes a central bank’s independence and subjects it to regulatory paralysis.

Michael Ehrmann, Gaetano Gaballo, Peter Hoffmann, Georg Strasser, 01 August 2019

Forward guidance – communication by a central bank about the likely future path of interest rates – usually reduces uncertainty. This column argues that how this is done in practice matters, however, because forward guidance with a short time horizon can raise uncertainty. This occurs if the forward guidance impairs the aggregation of private information in financial markets, thus making market prices less informative.

Maylis Avaro, Vincent Bignon, 20 July 2019

The payment landscape is changing. This column goes back to late 19th century France to explore the implications of this more decentralised and less banked landscape for the design of central banks’ interventions when fighting financial crises. The Banque de France operated a very wide discount window and used a variety of risk management techniques to effectively subdue risk-taking behaviours and to protect its balance sheet from taking any loss. This helped it to stabilise the economy and to overcome the consequences of negative income shocks.

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